Market Overview for AVA/Bitcoin (AVABTC) – October 23, 2025

• Price declined from 3.46e-06 to 3.41e-06, forming bearish momentum amid low-volume trading.• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged in early trading with confirmation from the following candle.• Volatility remained constrained within Bollinger Bands, with price staying near the lower band.• RSI approached oversold levels, while MACD showed bearish divergence, suggesting potential for a bounce or continuation.• No notable volume spikes confirmed price moves, casting doubt on the strength of bearish signals.

AVA/Bitcoin (AVABTC) opened at 3.46e-06 on October 22 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 3.46e-06, and closed at 3.41e-06 as of October 23 at 12:00 ET. The price action over the past 24 hours showed a gradual bearish bias, closing near the low of the session. Total traded volume for the pair was approximately 69,500.0, with notional turnover reflecting the modest volume and price range.

In terms of structure, key support levels emerged around 3.41e-06 and 3.40e-06, while resistance is temporarily stalled at 3.45e-06. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed in the early morning session (October 22, 16:15–16:30 ET), followed by a confirmation candle (16:30–16:45 ET) that closed lower. This formation could signal a near-term reversal or continuation, depending on whether volume intensifies or a retest of key levels occurs.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have remained below price, reinforcing the bearish trend. MACD has shown a bearish crossover with a negative histogram, while RSI has drifted into oversold territory around 30. This suggests that a short-term bounce may be in play, but a sustained reversal would require a move above the 50-period MA and a bullish RSI rebound. Bollinger Bands have remained narrow, indicating low volatility, with price hovering near the lower band — a possible precursor to a breakout or consolidation.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high (3.46e-06) to the recent low (3.35e-06) highlight key levels at 3.42e-06 (38.2%) and 3.38e-06 (61.8%). Price has tested 3.42e-06 multiple times, suggesting it may hold as a short-term support. A breakdown below 3.40e-06 could trigger further selling pressure toward the 3.38e-06 level.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtest strategy was attempted based on a combination of a bearish engulfing pattern and volume > 20,000. However, due to the absence of usable volume data in the dataset, the strategy failed to produce actionable signals. Specifically, all volume fields in the candlestick data were reported as 0.0, preventing the volume threshold from being met. This appears to be a limitation of the data feed for this particular pair. Moving forward, two options are available: (A) Retrieve standalone volume data and merge it with candlestick data for accurate backtesting, or (B) Adjust the strategy to use the bearish engulfing pattern alone, without volume filtering. Option A is recommended for a more precise and realistic backtest.