Market Overview for Audius/Tether (AUDIOUSDT)

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• AUDIOUSDT opened at 0.0568, peaked at 0.0575, and closed at 0.0557, showing a choppy 24-hour session.
• Momentum weakened in the latter half of the day, with RSI dipping into oversold territory.
• Volume remained elevated, particularly after 16:00 ET, though price did not respond with clarity.
• Volatility expanded in the early morning before contracting, signaling a possible consolidation phase.
• Bearish bias is likely in the short term unless the pair breaks above 0.0572 with strong volume.

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The Audius/Tether (AUDIOUSDT) pair opened at 0.0568 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.0575, and closing at 0.0557 on 2025-10-04 12:00 ET. The total volume traded during the 24-hour period was 4,080,722.3 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $233,356.23. The price action revealed a range-bound profile, with bearish momentum evident in the late hours.

Structure & Formations

Price moved within a tight range between 0.0556 and 0.0575, with 0.0569 acting as a key intraday pivot. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 15:00 ET, followed by a doji near 0.0562, indicating indecision. The formation of lower highs and lower closes after 23:00 ET suggests a potential short-term breakdown.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed below the price toward the end of the session, forming a bearish crossover. The 50EMA and 100EMA on the daily chart also dipped below the 200SMA, suggesting short-term bearish momentum. The price is currently below all three moving averages, reinforcing the downward bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned negative after 17:00 ET, signaling a loss of bullish momentum. By 10:00 ET, the RSI had fallen to 32, entering oversold territory, but no significant rebound followed. The combination of a bearish MACD and a weak RSI suggests a lack of follow-through in the bullish direction, increasing the likelihood of further consolidation or a short-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands expanded in the early morning and then contracted after 09:00 ET, indicating lower volatility and potential range trading. Price spent most of the session in the lower half of the bands, especially after 14:00 ET, which aligns with a bearish bias. A breakout above the upper band could signal a temporary reversal, but this appears unlikely without a volume spike.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply between 16:00 and 18:00 ET, but price action did not confirm the move, showing a divergence. The notional turnover remained steady, but trading intensity dropped off after 09:00 ET. The lack of confirmation from volume suggests decreased conviction in the current move.

Fibonacci Retracements

A recent 15-minute swing from 0.0569 to 0.0575 has seen a retracement to 0.0570, currently resisting further advances. On the daily chart, 61.8% retracement at 0.0562 was tested multiple times and held. A break below 0.0556 would trigger the next level of concern, with 0.0552 in view.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and the RSI entering oversold territory without a clear rebound, a backtest strategy could be constructed using a short bias triggered at the close of the engulfing candle (around 15:00 ET), with a stop-loss above 0.0572 and a take-profit at 0.0556. The strategy would aim to capture a mean-reversion or continuation move within a volatile range. A moving average crossover (20SMA/50SMA) and MACD divergence could serve as confirmation filters. Over 50 historical similar setups, this strategy would need to demonstrate a minimum win rate of 55% and a risk-reward ratio above 1:1.2 to be considered viable.