Market Overview: Audius/Tether (AUDIOUSDT) - 24-Hour Technical Snapshot

• AUDIOUSDT declined 6.3% over 24 hours, with a key support at 0.0410 and a failed attempt at 0.0435.
• Volatility expanded after 19:00 ET, with a 15-minute drop from 0.0435 to 0.0408.
• RSI dipped below 30 by 20:00 ET, indicating oversold conditions, while volume surged near the low.
• Price found a near-term floor around 0.0410–0.0413, consolidating after the selloff.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential resistance at 0.0422–0.0425 during any rebound.

The Audius/Tether (AUDIOUSDT) pair opened at 0.0432 on October 11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0419 by 12:00 ET the following day. Prices reached a high of 0.0436 and a low of 0.0406, marking a 6.3% decline. Total volume amounted to 8.9 million, with a notional turnover of $372,421, indicating increased market activity during the selloff.

The 15-minute chart shows a strong bearish bias with a key support forming around 0.0410–0.0413. Notable patterns include a bearish engulfing pattern at 19:00 ET and a potential hammer near the low at 0.0408. Resistance appears at 0.0425, aligned with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.0436 to 0.0406 swing. A 20-period moving average (0.0422) and 50-period MA (0.0425) both sit above the close, indicating bearish momentum.

MACD and RSI Insights

The 15-minute RSI dropped below 30 by 20:00 ET, signaling oversold conditions, though the indicator has not yet rebounded meaningfully. MACD lines trended lower during the selloff, with the histogram showing diverging bearish momentum. These readings suggest limited near-term upside unless volume confirms a reversal.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion after 19:00 ET, with price dropping to the lower band at 0.0408. The 20-period band width increased from 0.0008 to 0.0016, highlighting heightened volatility. Price has since remained within the band floor, suggesting that a sustained rebound may be necessary to re-enter the middle band.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

Volume surged during the 0.0436–0.0406 decline, peaking at 881,778.2 at 23:00 ET. However, turnover in the final 6 hours was only 135,000, suggesting weak participation in the rally from 0.0406–0.0419. A price-volume divergence may indicate that buyers remain hesitant, with a potential follow-through move pending confirmation.

Fibonacci and Key Levels

A retracement from the 0.0436 high to the 0.0406 low shows key levels at 0.0422 (38.2%) and 0.0429 (61.8%). The 61.8% level appears to coincide with the 50-period MA and a prior resistance, making it a critical area to watch. A break below 0.0410 could see price test the next Fibonacci level at 0.0403.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential short-term mean reversion strategy could be tested by entering long positions when price closes above the 20-period MA, with a stop-loss placed below the 38.2% Fibonacci level and a take-profit target aligned with the 61.8% retracement. Given the recent selloff and RSI bottoming at oversold levels, a bullish bias is warranted for a short horizon, provided volume confirms the move. This hypothesis aligns with the observed price action and technical indicators, offering a clear and testable framework for execution.