Market Overview for Aster/Tether (ASTERUSDT)

• Price surged past 1.500 with a bullish breakout after consolidation
• RSI reached overbought territory indicating potential pullback
• Volume surged during the 07:45–09:00 ET rally, confirming strength
• Bollinger Bands show increasing volatility with price near the upper band
• MACD crossed above zero, suggesting a short-term bullish momentum

Aster/Tether (ASTERUSDT) opened at 1.469 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.593, and closed at 1.454 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET, with a low of 1.402. The total volume over 24 hours was approximately 83,428,611.12 and the notional turnover (amount traded) was 68,160.50.

The 24-hour candlestick pattern shows a bullish breakout after a prolonged consolidation phase. A key support level appears to have held around 1.450, with the price bouncing off this area multiple times. The most notable candlestick pattern was a bullish engulfing formation on the 15-minute chart around 07:45–07:45 ET, which confirmed a short-term reversal from bearish to bullish. Additionally, a morning star pattern could be identified earlier in the session, further reinforcing the bullish sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows three distinct price waves. The first was a consolidation phase between 1.440 and 1.490, followed by a strong rally toward 1.593. A sharp pullback then occurred, testing the 1.450 support before stabilizing. Key resistance levels appear at 1.520 and 1.550, while the critical support is at 1.440 and 1.400. A breakdown below 1.400 could accelerate the downtrend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price has moved above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, suggesting continued bullish momentum. However, these indicators are still below the 100-period MA, indicating the trend may not yet be fully bullish on a longer timeframe. Daily MAs (50, 100, 200) are more flattened, suggesting a sideways bias in the broader market context.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line during the morning rally, suggesting strong momentum. The histogram is positive and expanding, reinforcing the bullish view. The RSI is currently at 68, indicating overbought conditions and raising the risk of a pullback in the short term. While the RSI has not reached extreme overbought levels yet, the sharp rise from 50 to 68 in a few hours indicates a rapid accumulation phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the rally, pushing prices near the upper Bollinger Band. The band width increased by over 20% compared to the previous day, indicating a breakout or reversal phase. Price has remained within the bands throughout the 24-hour period, but the upper band is showing signs of pressure from buyers.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the rally, particularly between 07:00 and 09:00 ET, with the highest volume occurring at 07:45 ET. This coincided with the bullish engulfing pattern, confirming the strength of the breakout. Notional turnover also rose during this period, aligning with the price action. A divergence between volume and price is not evident at this stage, suggesting the move is well-supported by liquidity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from 1.402 (low) to 1.593 (high), the price is currently consolidating near the 61.8% retracement level at around 1.456. A break above this could see prices test the 78.6% level at 1.486, with 1.500 as a critical psychological level. A breakdown below 1.450 would suggest a test of the 50% level at 1.446, with further support at 1.428 (38.2%).

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described focuses on identifying Bullish Engulfing patterns on the 15-minute chart, a key reversal signal that appears to have occurred around 07:45–07:45 ET on 2025-10-13. This pattern, when confirmed, could be used as an entry trigger for a long position. However, the automated system failed to recognize the ticker due to potential inconsistencies in symbol naming or data availability.

Given the data provided, this pattern can be manually validated. For a successful backtest, the strategy would need to define specific entry rules (e.g., close above the engulfing candle), stop-loss levels (e.g., below the engulfing candle’s low), and take-profit targets (e.g., Fibonacci levels or trendline extensions). Future iterations should consider validating the ticker symbol for the platform in use (e.g., BINANCE:ASTRUSDT or similar), or ensure that raw OHLC data is used for pattern scanning to avoid such discrepancies.