Market Overview for Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC): 2025-10-10 12:00 ET

• • •

• Price action shows a bullish breakout in late ET with a final close above 4.8e-05 after a volatile 24-hour range.
• Momentum, as captured by RSI, shows overbought conditions late in the day, hinting at potential consolidation.
• Volatility spiked during the 15-hour window (10/10–10/11), with large-volume orders confirming key levels.
• Volume surged at the session’s close, particularly after 15:00 ET, with notional turnover increasing sharply.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed late in the session, suggesting short-term buyer control.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10, Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) opened at 4.66e-05, reaching a high of 4.86e-05 and a low of 4.61e-05 during the 24-hour period. The price closed at 4.65e-05 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 10,293.85 BTC, while total turnover amounted to approximately 494.17 AR. The price action shows a strong intraday rally, especially in the late ET hours, with volume and price action aligning for bullish confirmation.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick chart reveals a bullish bias after 03:30 ET on 10/10, with a key breakout above 4.78e-05 confirmed by strong volume. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 15:15 ET, where the close at 4.84e-05 was higher than the previous candle’s high, signaling renewed buying interest. Around 12:00 ET on 10/11, a doji candle formed near 4.84e-05, hinting at potential consolidation. Support levels are seen around 4.76e-05 and 4.68e-05, with the latter acting as a psychological floor during the sell-off. Resistance appears at 4.85e-05 and 4.87e-05, with the 20-period EMA at 4.81e-05 offering a near-term pivot.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart are both in bullish alignment, with the 20 EMA currently at 4.81e-05 and the 50 EMA at 4.79e-05. Price has crossed above both lines, suggesting a short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50 EMA sits at 4.75e-05, while the 200 EMA is near 4.69e-05. The price is above both long-term moving averages, reinforcing a longer-term bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD on the 15-minute chart shows a strong positive crossover in the last 4 hours of the session, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line at 0.0000025. This indicates a significant shift in momentum. The RSI has reached overbought territory (above 70) in the final hour of the session, suggesting that a pullback may be near. However, the strong volume during this period implies that buyers may continue to dominate in the short term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded during the bullish phase, with the upper band reaching as high as 4.86e-05. The price has tested the upper band multiple times, with a decisive break at 03:45 ET confirming the upward shift in sentiment. Currently, the price is sitting just below the upper band, with the middle band at 4.79e-05, suggesting that volatility remains high but momentum is still intact.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover surged after 15:00 ET as the price approached 4.84e-05 and 4.86e-05. The volume spike at 15:15 ET, where 1062.85 BTC traded at 4.81e-05, confirms the breakout. In contrast, the sell-off at 15:15 ET was supported by a large-volume trade at 4.7e-05. This divergence between price and volume during the late sell-off may indicate a temporary pause in the bullish trend, though the overall pattern remains constructive.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent intraday swing from 4.61e-05 to 4.86e-05 shows key retracement levels at 4.80e-05 (38.2%), 4.77e-05 (50%), and 4.74e-05 (61.8%). The current price at 4.65e-05 is below the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential retest of the 4.74e-05 and 4.77e-05 levels in the coming hours. These levels could serve as dynamic support zones for a rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under review involves entering long positions on ARBTC when the price breaks above the 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss set below the prior swing low. The target is set at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Given the recent bullish momentum confirmed by the 20/50 EMA crossover and volume expansion, this strategy appears well-aligned with the current market structure. A potential entry point could be confirmed if the price holds above 4.76e-05 and shows a retest of the 4.77e-05 level with strong volume.