Market Overview for Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT): October 21, 2025

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• Price action shows a 1.6% 24-hour decline on ARKMUSDT, ending at 0.384 after a 0.386 peak.
• Volatility has expanded with Bollinger Band widening, reflecting increased uncertainty.
• RSI (14) and MACD lack clear overbought/oversold signals, suggesting momentum remains neutral.
• Volume surged in the final hours of the session, suggesting renewed participation.
• Key support near 0.383 may hold as a short-term floor in the next 24 hours.

The Arkham/Tether pair (ARKMUSDT) opened at 0.380 at 12:00 ET - 1 and reached a high of 0.389 by 15:30 ET before retreating to a 24-hour low of 0.359 in early morning trading. The 24-hour session closed at 0.384, marking a 1.6% decline. Total volume across the 24-hour period amounted to 10,322,161.3, while notional turnover reached $3,936,284.40. Price action has been volatile, with clear bearish and bullish momentum swings evident in the 15-minute chart.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals several key support and resistance levels. A critical support appears at 0.383, where multiple candles found a floor and bounced. A resistance level at 0.389 was tested twice, but neither break resulted in confirmation of a sustained bullish move. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 02:00 ET, signaling a potential reversal from a bullish to bearish bias. A doji formed near 06:15 ET, suggesting indecision and potentially a pause in the downward trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period SMA is bearish, trending below the 50-period SMA, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is above the 100-period SMA, with both above the 200-period SMA, suggesting a more neutral-to-bullish bias for the broader trend. However, the recent pullback may have caused a temporary flattening of the short-term averages.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has crossed below the signal line at 06:00 ET, indicating bearish momentum. The histogram remains negative throughout the session, suggesting a lack of buying pressure. RSI (14) has oscillated between overbought and oversold levels, peaking near 67 and bottoming at 38. While not extreme, this suggests a relatively balanced market sentiment. A golden cross is yet to form on the daily chart, so any short-term bullish bets remain speculative.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly over the past 24 hours, with Bollinger Bands widening to a standard deviation of 1.7 from a prior contraction. Price remains in the upper portion of the bands for much of the session, particularly between 15:00 and 16:00 ET. This suggests heightened uncertainty and potential for a breakout or reversion. The current close of 0.384 is near the middle band, signaling a possible consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the final hours of the session, especially between 15:00 and 16:00 ET, where large-volume bars accompanied the bullish move toward 0.389. This suggests increased participation from traders, possibly driven by news or speculative activity. However, turnover did not expand proportionally, indicating that price gains may not be fully supported by buying conviction. Divergence between volume and price could hint at a potential reversal or continuation, but more data is needed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 24-hour move from 0.389 to 0.359 shows key levels at 38.2% (0.376) and 61.8% (0.373). The price briefly tested the 38.2% level and bounced, but failed to sustain a move above it. A 61.8% retracement has acted as a stronger floor, with several candles finding support here. These levels may provide clues for potential bounce scenarios or continuation of the downtrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent volatility and the mixed signals from MACD and RSI, a backtest based on a MACD golden cross strategy could provide valuable insight. However, the data source indicates that the symbol “ARKMUSDT” is not recognized for backtesting. To proceed, we recommend confirming the correct symbol format, such as “ARKM/USDT” or “BINANCE:ARKMUSDT,” or alternatively using a more widely available symbol like “ARKK” (ARK Innovation ETF). Once a valid ticker is confirmed, we can automatically run a 3-day-hold backtest from January 1, 2022, to the current date to evaluate the potential profitability of MACD-based signals.