Market Overview for Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) – 2025-11-12

Summary
• ARKMUSDT closed at 0.341, down from a 24-hour high of 0.345 and up from a low of 0.316.
• Price shows bearish momentum with RSI near oversold levels and MACD in a negative crossover.
• Volatility increased with strong volume in the final hours, especially after 16:00 ET.

ARKMUSDT opened at 0.342 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.341 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.345 and a low of 0.316 during the 24-hour period. The total 15-minute OHLCV data indicates a 24-hour volume of approximately 16,387,449.2 and a total turnover of around 5,268.37 (in USD equivalent).

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart reveals a bearish bias as the pair fell below key support levels, forming multiple bearish patterns such as dark cloud cover and hanging man at 0.329 and 0.331, respectively. A potential short-term support level appears to form near 0.327-0.328, which has held twice, while 0.334-0.335 remains critical resistance for a potential bounce.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both sloping downward, reinforcing bearish momentum. On a daily basis, the 50, 100, and 200-day EMA lines remain in a bearish alignment, suggesting the overall trend remains intact, with no clear reversal signals detected.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line with a bearish divergence, indicating ongoing downward momentum. RSI has fallen below 30, signaling oversold conditions, but without a strong rebound, a further pullback to 0.325-0.326 appears possible. The combination of negative momentum and low RSI suggests a continuation of the downtrend is probable, though short-term bounces could occur.

Bollinger Bands

Price has spent much of the past 24 hours near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating low volatility and bearish pressure. The bands are relatively wide, suggesting a prior period of consolidation before the recent drop. A break of the upper band near 0.345 may not occur unless there is a strong positive catalyst.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the afternoon and evening hours, particularly between 16:00 and 17:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp drop to 0.319. While price fell, turnover increased in line with the move, supporting the bearish narrative. Divergences were not observed between price and volume, as both moved in unison during the key downswing.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute retracements highlight key levels at 0.329 (38.2%), 0.326 (61.8%), and 0.322 (78.6%) as potential support zones. The 61.8% level has shown some strength, with price rebounding from it twice. On a daily basis, 0.334-0.335 remains a key Fibonacci level to watch for a potential reversal attempt.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent backtest failure for MACD top-divergence signals in ARKMUSDT suggests either an unusually quiet trend period or overly strict detection parameters. Given the bearish momentum and lack of divergence in the 24-hour data, relaxing the criteria—such as shortening the look-back window or allowing smaller histogram retracements—may uncover meaningful signals. Alternatively, expanding the time range could include earlier divergences that were missed during the current bearish phase.