Market Overview for Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) – 2025-10-11

• Price fell 26.7% in 24 hours, dropping from $0.50 to $0.363.
• Volatility spiked during the sell-off, with a high of $0.512 and low of $0.114.
• Volume surged to 9.69M units at the low point, indicating aggressive dumping.
• RSI hit oversold territory below 30, suggesting potential short-term bounce.
• Price is near 61.8% Fibonacci support at $0.33, offering possible near-term floor.

Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) opened at $0.50 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $0.512, and crashed to an intraday low of $0.114 before settling at $0.363 at 12:00 ET today. Total volume over 24 hours reached 356.5 million units, with notional turnover indicating a high level of trading intensity.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a significant bearish breakdown, with a long-bodied bearish candle at 21:30 ET on 2025-10-10 marking a key turning point. This candle formed a strong bearish engulfing pattern, confirming a shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish. A deep gap down followed, with price testing multiple swing lows before finding support around the 0.33–0.34 level. A key bear trap was evident at 0.49, where buyers failed to push price higher. A potential bullish reversal candle emerged at 03:45 ET, with a small body and long lower wick, hinting at possible stabilization.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA was well above the 50-period MA, reflecting bearish momentum. The daily timeframe shows the 50-day MA at 0.48, and the 200-day MA at 0.42, indicating a broader bearish trend. Price closed below both, reinforcing a downtrend setup. The 100-day MA at 0.44 may now act as dynamic resistance.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and remains bearish, with the signal line crossing below the MACD line during the sell-off. RSI bottomed at 23 during the intraday low, entering oversold territory and suggesting a potential bounce. However, RSI remains bearish with no clear signs of overbought conditions. Momentum is clearly to the downside, though a short-term rebound cannot be ruled out.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was highly contracted prior to the breakdown, with a narrow band width. After the 21:30 ET bearish candle, bands expanded rapidly, indicating increased uncertainty and panic selling. Price has since remained near the lower band, suggesting continued bearish pressure. A move back into the middle band would indicate a potential short-term recovery.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the breakdown at 21:30 ET, with 9.69 million units traded, confirming the bearish move. However, in the subsequent hours, volume decreased, suggesting lack of follow-through on the sell-off. Notional turnover also dropped after the low, hinting at a possible short-covering rally. A divergence between price and volume is beginning to form, suggesting weakening bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings show price testing the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.33–0.34, with potential support also near the 38.2% level at 0.38–0.39. Daily Fibonacci levels indicate 0.37 as the next potential support level, followed by 0.34. Resistance remains at 0.48–0.49, where the prior bear trap occurred.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent breakdown and potential stabilization at key Fibonacci levels, a backtest strategy could involve a long entry on a close above the 0.34–0.35 level, with a stop-loss below 0.33 and a target at 0.38. This would capitalize on the potential short-term bounce while managing risk in a volatile environment. A confirmation via bullish candlestick pattern or RSI crossing above 30 could enhance signal reliability.