Market Overview: Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) on 2025-10-06

• • •

• Price action on ARKMUSDT surged over 24 hours, closing near the high after a bullish reversal from a key support level.
• Momentum indicators show rising RSI and positive MACD divergence, signaling potential continuation of the uptrend.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate widening, reflecting increased volatility as price approached the upper band.
• Volume and turnover spiked in the final 6 hours, validating the recent breakout and confirming buyer participation.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near the session low, reinforcing the reversal narrative.

Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) opened at 0.543 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.563 before settling at 0.56 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06. The 24-hour candle shows a robust bullish trend, with volume totaling 3.42 million units and a notional turnover of $1.85 million.

Structure & Formations

The price action revealed a key support level forming around 0.533–0.535, where a strong bullish reversal began. A notable bullish engulfing pattern formed on the 15-minute chart at 0.536, confirming the reversal. Later in the session, a 15-minute doji at 0.556 suggested short-term indecision before the price continued higher. The 0.547–0.548 range acted as a temporary resistance, but buyers overwhelmed sellers by midday, leading to a breakout above 0.56.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price in the morning, but by afternoon, they both turned upward, aligning with the trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sat around 0.539, now comfortably below the current price, indicating a strong medium-term bullish bias. The 200-day SMA, at 0.532, remains well below current levels, reinforcing the uptrend.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned positive early in the session, with the histogram expanding as the rally gained strength. The RSI climbed from 38 in the morning to 62 at close, indicating increasing momentum without yet entering overbought territory. The divergence between the MACD and price in the final hour suggests continued strength.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the session, with the upper band reaching 0.567 by the close. Price traded near the upper band for most of the last 6 hours, indicating strong buyer control. The lower band hovered around 0.533, acting as a dynamic support that held through several tests.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the last 8 hours, peaking with a 15-minute candle at 459,485 units. Turnover followed a similar pattern, confirming the strength of the price move. A divergence between falling volume and rising price appeared in the final hour, signaling potential short-term caution.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price found support at the 61.8% level (0.535–0.536), then moved above the 78.6% retracement of the earlier downtrend. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at 0.547–0.548 acted as a key resistance before the breakout, suggesting buyers are now in control of the near-term structure.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent price action and technical indicators align with a backtesting strategy centered on identifying strong reversal patterns near key support levels and confirming them with divergent momentum indicators. Specifically, a long entry could be triggered upon a bullish engulfing pattern forming at or near a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, confirmed by RSI divergence and a positive MACD cross. Stop-loss would be placed below the low of the engulfing pattern, while a take-profit target could be set at the next Fibonacci level or upper Bollinger Band. This approach may work well in markets showing signs of consolidation followed by breakout confirmation, as seen today.

The forward-looking view suggests that ARKMUSDT may continue to test higher levels in the next 24 hours, particularly if the 0.565–0.570 range holds. However, traders should remain cautious of potential short-term corrections as the RSI approaches overbought territory and volume begins to show signs of tapering.