Market Overview for Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) – 2025-09-21

• ARKMUSDT opened at 0.622 and closed at 0.608, with a 24-hour high of 0.629 and low of 0.601.
• A sharp bearish reversal is evident after a strong intraday push above 0.623.
• RSI and MACD signal oversold conditions and bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, indicating high volatility.
• Volume surged at the session peak but faded as price declined, showing weakening follow-through.

The Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) pair opened at 0.622 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 0.608 at 12:00 ET. Intraday highs reached 0.629 while lows hit 0.601. Total trading volume for the 24-hour period was 7,056,337.5 units with a notional turnover of approximately $4,282,857.00, showing a volatile but ultimately bearish session.

Price action suggests a bearish shift after a failed bullish attempt. The pair initially surged above key resistance at 0.623, reaching a peak at 0.629, only to reverse and close below 0.61. Notable patterns include a bearish engulfing candle at 0.623 and a long lower shadow at the session’s end, indicating rejection of higher prices. Support appears to be forming at 0.61–0.615, while resistance remains at 0.623–0.626.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a distinct bearish bias, with price forming a descending triangle pattern between 0.629 (high) and 0.601 (low). A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is currently at 0.612, aligning with a potential short-term support. On the 15-minute chart, a long bearish shadow appears at 0.615, indicating rejection at this level. The key resistance at 0.623 has shown multiple failed attempts to break through, suggesting it may hold until further bullish conviction emerges.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both crossed below the price, confirming the bearish trend. The 20SMA is currently at 0.619, while the 50SMA is at 0.617, showing a narrowing gap as the downtrend intensifies. On the daily chart, the 50SMA is at 0.624, and the 100SMA is at 0.627, further reinforcing the bearish bias as the price remains below both major averages.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned negative and is trending lower, with the signal line crossing below the MACD line, indicating bearish momentum. The RSI stands at 31, signaling oversold conditions, but lacks confirmation of a reversal. Price is still below the 40 RSI threshold, suggesting that the bearish trend could continue. A divergence between RSI and price is not yet clear, but the RSI’s inability to rise as price stabilizes at 0.610–0.612 suggests potential for a rebound or consolidation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly after a sharp decline, indicating rising volatility. The lower band sits at approximately 0.605, and price is currently near this level. The recent contraction in the bands during the morning session followed by an expansion is a classic volatility breakout pattern, though in this case it favored the downside. If price holds above 0.610, the bands could act as a dynamic support, but a breakdown below 0.605 would likely trigger further selling pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning session as price approached 0.623 and again during the early afternoon decline to 0.610. Total volume of 7,056,337.5 units is above the 24-hour average, but much of it occurred during the downswing, showing increased bearish conviction. Notional turnover rose to $4,282,857.00 as price dropped, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. A divergence is forming between rising volume and falling price, which could indicate exhaustion or a potential short-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 0.623–0.610 swing, the 38.2% level is at 0.616 and the 61.8% at 0.611. Price is currently near the 61.8% level, which may act as a key support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the 0.629–0.601 swing is at 0.612, aligning with the 15-minute level. This confluence of support could trigger a short-term consolidation or a rebound if buyers step in.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current technical setup, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on short-term bearish momentum with a Fibonacci support filter. Traders might look to enter short positions upon rejection at key support levels (e.g., 0.610–0.612), with a stop-loss above the 0.616 level and a target at 0.605–0.601. A trailing stop could be activated if price stabilizes above 0.612 to capture potential consolidation or a short-term rally. This strategy would align with the observed bearish divergence in volume and MACD, while respecting the Fibonacci and Bollinger Band support levels as dynamic targets.