Market Overview for Ark/Tether (ARKUSDT) – 2025-09-17

• Ark/Tether declined from 0.4609 to 0.4525 amid a 24-hour trading session with mixed momentum.
• A bearish breakdown below key support levels and expanding volatility suggest short-term pressure.
• High volume surges in late ET hours coincided with price rejection near 0.4575.
• RSI oversold conditions and Bollinger Band contractions hint at potential bounce potential.
• Divergence between price and turnover highlights caution in interpreting momentum shifts.

Ark/Tether (ARKUSDT) opened at 0.4545 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.4525 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.4609 and a low of 0.4499. The total 24-hour trading volume was approximately 549,837.0 coins, with a notional turnover of $249,783.90. The pair showed a bearish bias, forming key support and resistance structures in the last 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

Over the past 24 hours, ARKUSDT formed a bearish breakdown pattern, particularly in the late ET hours, with a key support level established near 0.4530–0.4535. The price rejected this support twice, forming a bearish continuation pattern. A doji candle at 0.4509–0.4509 and an engulfing bearish pattern at 0.4521–0.4521 suggest a potential short-term bottoming process. Resistance levels were evident near 0.4575 and 0.4595, where the price struggled to gain traction.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows the price closing below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating a continuation of bearish momentum in the short term. On the daily chart, the price remains below the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, affirming a longer-term downtrend. A crossover of the 20-period MA above the 50-period MA in the next 24 hours would be a positive signal for short-term traders.

MACD & RSI

The MACD for the 15-minute chart shows bearish momentum, with both the MACD line and signal line remaining in negative territory. RSI has entered oversold conditions, currently near 32, suggesting a potential bounce may be near. However, divergence between RSI and price action, particularly in the last 5–6 hours, indicates that caution is warranted. Traders should watch for RSI crossing above 40 to confirm any reversal attempt.

Bollinger Bands have expanded in the past 6 hours, indicating increased volatility. The price currently sits near the lower band, reinforcing the case for a potential bounce. However, a sustained break below the lower band could indicate further downside risk.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply after 06:00 ET, particularly between 06:00 and 10:00 ET, coinciding with a failed attempt to break above 0.4575. The highest notional turnover was observed during the 00:15–00:30 ET timeframe, where the price dropped from 0.4609 to 0.4569, suggesting strong selling pressure. Divergence between the falling price and rising turnover in the 03:00–06:00 ET timeframe suggests possible bearish exhaustion and a potential bottoming process.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, ARKUSDT is currently trading near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 0.4499–0.4589 swing. A break below this level would target the next key support at 0.4489. On the daily chart, the 0.4499–0.4609 swing has 61.8% at 0.4550, where the price has previously found resistance. A sustained break below 0.4550 could bring the 38.2% level at 0.4520 into focus.

Backtest Hypothesis

A proposed backtest strategy involves entering long positions when ARKUSDT closes above the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, accompanied by a bullish crossover in the MACD and RSI above 40. This would signal a short-term reversal attempt. A stop-loss would be placed below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, while a take-profit would be set at the nearest resistance level above 0.4575. The strategy relies on identifying early bullish signals amid a broader bearish trend, capitalizing on volatility and momentum shifts as the price tests key Fibonacci levels.