Market Overview for Arbitrum/Bitcoin (ARBBTC) on 2025-09-25

• Price declined from 3.86e-06 to 3.73e-06, forming bearish consolidation
• RSI and MACD showed weak momentum with no overbought/oversold signals
• Volatility remained low, with price hovering near the lower Bollinger Band
• Large volume surges occurred during key downward moves in late hours
• Turnover confirmed bearish bias during key selloffs in overnight trading

24-Hour Summary

The Arbitrum/Bitcoin (ARBBTC) pair opened at 3.86e-06 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 3.86e-06 and a low of 3.68e-06, closing at 3.73e-06 at 12:00 ET the following day. Total volume amounted to 577,099.8 units, with a notional turnover of $2,162.6 (assuming a BTC price of $60,000).

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a broad bearish consolidation pattern, with a key resistance level near 3.84e-06 and support emerging in the 3.73e-06–3.75e-06 range. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared during the 09:30–10:00 ET window, confirming downward pressure. A doji candle formed near 3.74e-06, suggesting temporary indecision among buyers.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained bearish, with the 20SMA slightly above the 50SMA. Price closed below both lines, suggesting continued bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50SMA was above the 200SMA, indicating a long-term bullish bias, but the short-term trend appears to be breaking below key support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained negative throughout the session, with the signal line crossing below the histogram, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI settled near 35, indicating moderate bearish pressure but not yet in oversold territory. No divergence was observed between RSI and price, confirming the continuation of the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained subdued, with the Bollinger Band width narrowing during the 12:00–03:00 ET window. Price action stayed near the lower band during the 21:00–04:00 ET period, indicating oversold-like conditions. A contraction in band width could precede a breakout or breakdown.

Volume & TurnoverVolume spiked during key selloffs, particularly between 19:30–20:00 ET and 02:00–02:45 ET, confirming bearish price moves. Turnover aligned with volume surges, showing no bearish divergence. However, low volume activity between 21:15–21:30 ET hinted at a brief pause in selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most recent 15-minute swing from 3.86e-06 to 3.73e-06 saw price finding support near the 61.8% retracement level at 3.76e-06. A rebound occurred from this level, but it failed to break back above 3.81e-06, suggesting continued bearish bias. On the daily chart, a prior 61.8% retracement level at 3.75e-06 coincided with recent support, reinforcing its significance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position on a close below the 61.8% Fibonacci level with a stop above the 78.6% level. A target could be set at the 38.2% level or the next major support. Given today’s action, this strategy would have entered a short at 3.76e-06 with a stop at 3.79e-06 and a target at 3.74e-06. The MACD and RSI confirmed the setup, and volume confirmed the move.