Market Overview: Aptos/Yen (APTJPY) – 24-Hour Summary and Strategy Options

• Price fell 6.8% in 24 hours, breaking key support levels after a midday rally failed
• Volatility surged midday as price dropped from ¥520 to ¥481 in 5 hours, signaling fear
• RSI hit oversold levels near 28, hinting potential bounce but weak volume suggests caution

Aptos/Yen (APTJPY) opened at ¥505.7 on November 2, 2025, and dropped to a low of ¥435.2 before closing at ¥446.8 at 12:00 ET on November 3. The pair reached a high of ¥522.6 and traded a total volume of 48,774.26 APT, with a notional turnover of ¥23,796,084.07 over the 24-hour period. Price action revealed a sharp bearish trend after a failed rebound above ¥500.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure shows a strong bearish bias, particularly after the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern at ¥508–504 and a sharp breakdown below ¥500. A series of long lower shadows and narrow-range consolidation candles suggest selling pressure dominated. Notably, at ¥475.5, a doji formed, signaling potential indecision or a short-term pause in the bearish momentum.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, price action remained significantly below both the 20-period (482.6) and 50-period (484.9) moving averages, reinforcing the downtrend. Bollinger Bands displayed a moderate widening during the drop from ¥520 to ¥480, indicating rising volatility. Price has been testing the lower band multiple times, which currently sits near ¥475–480, suggesting a potential floor in the near term.

Momentum and Relative Strength

The RSI dropped into oversold territory near 28 during the low at ¥439.5 but failed to generate a meaningful rebound. This suggests weak conviction in a reversal. MACD remained bearish throughout, with both the line and signal line in negative territory. The divergence between the price and the RSI at the lowest point could hint at a short-covering bounce, but without confirmation, caution remains warranted.

Volume and Turnover Signals

Trading volume surged during the most aggressive leg down, especially between ¥475 and ¥440, indicating strong selling activity. The largest single candle in this range (¥475–453.3) had a volume of 3,576.92 APT, the highest of the day. However, price failed to close back above key levels like ¥480 and ¥485, suggesting bears maintained control. Turnover and volume were positively correlated, offering some confirmation of the breakdown.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key swing high of ¥522.6 and low of ¥435.2, the 61.8% retracement level is near ¥483–485, which aligns with recent price consolidation. The 38.2% level is at ¥498.6, while the 50% level is at ¥478.9. Price is currently hovering near the 61.8% level, which could act as a short-term support or pivot zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

A viable backtest hypothesis could be to short APTJPY on a confirmed break below ¥475 with a stop above ¥485 and target at ¥450–440, based on the identified Fibonacci and RSI oversold divergence. However, the challenge remains in sourcing accurate APTJPY data. If the market continues to lack a direct JPY pair, the most liquid USD pair—APT-USDT—can be used as a proxy, with returns converted to JPY using the USD/JPY exchange rate. Please specify your preferred approach to proceed with the backtest.