Market Overview for Aptos/Bitcoin (APTBTC)

• APT/ BTC dropped 15.9% in 24 hours, forming bearish engulfing patterns and hitting a 22-day low.
• High volume confirmed the breakdown below key support levels during midday ET.
• RSI entered oversold territory while MACD diverged, suggesting potential rebound or further selloff.
• Volatility expanded via wide Bollinger Bands, with price lingering near the lower band.

APT/ BTC opened at $2.984e-05 on 2025-11-02 at 17:00 ET and closed at $2.87e-05 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of $3.059e-05 and a low of $2.656e-05. Total 15-minute volume summed to 216,496.29 APT, and notional turnover (in BTC) reached 6.49 BTC, reflecting heightened activity amid a sharp bearish trend.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed clear bearish momentum with multiple engulfing patterns and a breakdown below the $3.00e-05 psychological level. A key support level at $2.95e-05 was tested and breached, triggering further selling. The 24-hour chart shows a descending triangle formation developing, suggesting a possible continuation of the downtrend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearishly aligned, with price consistently below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits above the 100-period and 200-period, reinforcing the bearish bias. A retest of the 50-day MA near $3.10e-05 could offer a short-term countertrend opportunity if bulls manage to push above it.

MACD & RSI

MACD has turned negative and is diverging from price, signaling weakening momentum. The RSI is currently in oversold territory (~28), suggesting a potential bounce may be near. However, the bearish divergence in MACD implies that a rebound could be short-lived, and further testing of key support levels may occur before any sustainable reversal takes place.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded, with the 20-period Bollinger Bands stretching wide. Price has remained near the lower band throughout most of the 24-hour period, indicating strong bearish control. A break above the upper band would be a strong bullish signal, but this appears unlikely without a reversal in sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the midday ET sell-off, with large trades contributing to the breakdown below $3.00e-05. However, in the following hours, volume has moderated, suggesting reduced conviction in the bearish move. The notional turnover has also declined, pointing to a possible exhaustion of the current selloff phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from $3.05e-05 to $2.65e-05, the 38.2% retracement level is at $2.87e-05—exactly where the 24-hour close is. A further drop to the 61.8% level at $2.77e-05 appears likely unless buyers step in to defend this area. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement from the prior high sits at $3.08e-05, which remains well above current levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish pattern detected in APT/ BTC, a backtest could be structured using a simplified version of the bearish engulfing signal. A practical approach would be to trigger a sell signal when the current candle closes below the previous day’s low, as this is a bearish reversal proxy. The 61.8% Fibonacci level would act as a price target, while a stop-loss could be placed just above the most recent swing high to limit risk. This strategy could be tested using the daily APT/ BTC data, either from a more accessible ticker such as APT/ USDT or by manually supplying the relevant dates of bearish engulfing signals for cross-verification.