Market Overview: APTJPY (Aptos/Yen)

Summary
• APTJPY opened at ¥407.8 and closed near ¥394.8, down 3.18% in 24 hours.
• A key breakdown below ¥400 triggered bearish momentum, confirmed by declining RSI and MACD.
• Volume surged during the selloff, with over ¥15 million in turnover.

APTJPY closed at ¥394.8, down from ¥407.8 at 11:59 ET on 2025-11-04 to 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05. The 24-hour period saw a high of ¥407.8, a low of ¥369.6, and a total volume of 150,154.23 contracts. Notional turnover reached approximately ¥58,964,958 (assuming JPY as base currency). The price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern early in the session and continued lower, indicating strong selling pressure.

Structure & Formations

The session started with a large bearish candle at 17:00 ET, forming a bearish engulfing pattern that confirmed the reversal. A second large bearish body formed at 20:30 ET as price dropped from ¥390.6 to ¥382.5. Key support was found at ¥385.0, and price bounced temporarily from there. A small doji formed at 23:30 ET, suggesting indecision near ¥394.8. However, the bearish momentum continued into the overnight hours, with a final low at ¥369.6.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both in steep decline, confirming the bearish bias. The 50SMA is currently at ¥396.4, slightly above the 20SMA at ¥395.6. On the daily chart, APTJPY is trading below its 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish at the start of the session, with a large negative bar confirming the momentum shift. RSI dropped from 60 to 28 by 20:30 ET, indicating oversold territory, but the bearish pressure persisted. Both indicators suggest continued downside potential in the short term, though RSI near 28 may hint at near-term oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands

Price action broke below the lower Bollinger Band at 20:30 ET, with volatility expanding as the bands widened. The 20-period Bollinger Band width hit a session high of 10.2%, confirming the increased volatility. Price remained below the band for most of the session, suggesting continued bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 20:30–21:30 ET period, as the price dropped from ¥390.6 to ¥369.6. The highest single 15-minute volume was at 20:30 ET, where 15,317.73 contracts were traded. Notional turnover mirrored this, with over ¥5.8 million transacted during the selloff. No bear/bull divergence was detected, suggesting the bearish trend is supported by volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute low at ¥369.6 and the high at ¥407.8, key levels include 61.8% at ¥388.1 and 38.2% at ¥396.8. Price found some support at ¥385.0 and ¥394.8, but failed to hold the 38.2% retracement. On a daily basis, APTJPY is trading near the 61.8% retracement of its recent bullish leg, which may offer further resistance if price attempts to rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

Before proceeding with a backtest for bearish engulfing patterns on APTJPY, the exact ticker symbol needs confirmation, as no valid price series was retrieved. Options include APT/USD (APTUSDT), APT/USDT perpetual futures (APTUSDT.P), or other Aptos/JPY pairs available on your data source. Once confirmed, a comprehensive backtest will be generated, including 3-day short signals, performance reports, and visuals from January 1, 2022, to the present.