Market Overview for APTBTC on 2025-10-06

• APTBTC closed lower at 4.313e-5, down from 4.485e-5, amid bearish momentum and declining volume.
• Volatility expanded overnight, with price testing key support levels and forming bearish engulfing patterns.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term bounce, though momentum remains negative.
• Strong divergence between price and turnover emerged in the final 6 hours, signaling potential accumulation.

Aptos/Bitcoin (APTBTC) opened at 4.485e-5 on 2025-10-05 12:00 ET, peaked at 4.501e-5, and closed at 4.313e-5 on 2025-10-06 12:00 ET. The pair fell 4.43% over 24 hours. Total volume was 29,886.86, and turnover (notional value) amounted to approximately 1.31. The market experienced a bearish reversal from overnight highs, with bearish engulfing and hanging man patterns forming in key 15-minute intervals.

Structure & Formations

The price broke below a critical support level at 4.44e-5 and consolidated in a descending channel. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on 2025-1006 00:1500, confirming bearish bias. Key resistance levels are at 4.48e-5 and 4.50e-5, while support levels are at 4.36e-5 and 4.28e-5. A doji formed at 4.353e-5 (2025-1006 04:4500), hinting at potential reversal, though a follow-through break below 4.28e-5 would confirm a deeper bearish trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed below the 50-period SMA, forming a death cross. On the daily chart, price sits below the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs, indicating a broader bearish trend. A short-term retest of the 50SMA at ~4.37e-5 may trigger further bearish continuation or temporary bounce.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line, with both in negative territory, signaling sustained bearish momentum. RSI dropped below 30 in the final 2 hours, entering oversold territory and hinting at a potential bounce. However, the histogram remains negative, so a reversal is not confirmed yet. A sustained close above 4.36e-5 would validate a short-term RSI rebound and signal bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded overnight as price moved from the upper band to the lower band, indicating strong bearish pressure. In the last 6 hours, volatility has started to contract slightly, suggesting potential consolidation. Price currently resides near the lower band at ~4.28e-5, which may act as a psychological floor in the short term. A break below this would trigger a re-expansion of volatility and a test of the 4.25e-5 support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the overnight session, with the 2025-1005 174500 candle printing 2,549.9 in volume. However, the most recent 6 hours have seen a divergence: volume has declined while price has continued lower, suggesting accumulation by long-term holders. The final 24-hour turnover of 1.31 shows uneven distribution, with the majority of trading occurring in the first half of the session. This unevenness suggests a potential shift in market dynamics ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key 61.8% Fib level is at 4.34e-5, and a 38.2% level is at 4.43e-5. The 61.8% level appears to have been rejected twice in the past 48 hours, now acting as a resistance-turned-support. A break below 4.28e-5 (78.6% Fib) would target 4.22e-5 and 4.18e-5 as deeper support zones, aligning with prior congestion areas.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on RSI oversold conditions and Bollinger Band contractions could provide short-term entry signals. For example, a long signal could be generated when RSI < 30 and price near the lower band, while a stop-loss is placed below the previous swing low. Conversely, a short signal may be triggered when RSI > 70 and price near the upper band. Given the recent bearish momentum and RSI in oversold territory, such a strategy may offer a high-probability entry for a short-term bounce followed by a retest of key support levels.