Market Overview: APTBTC on 2025-09-24

• APTBTC traded in a tight range, with minor fluctuations between $0.00003818 and $0.00003855
• RSI remained neutral, indicating balanced buying and selling pressure
• Volatility expanded during overnight trading, but volume failed to confirm breakout attempts
• A bearish divergence appeared in late-night candlesticks, suggesting weakening bullish momentum
• Price retested prior support levels in the morning, but failed to break below key 0.00003818

Aptos/Bitcoin (APTBTC) opened at $0.00003833 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.00003791 by 12:00 ET the next day, after hitting a high of $0.00003855 and a low of $0.00003782 over the 24-hour period. Total volume traded stood at 7,589.45 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $289.18, reflecting moderate trading activity across volatile overnight hours.

Price action over the 24-hour window was characterized by tight consolidation during the day, followed by a sharp dip in overnight trading as sellers regained control. Key resistance levels appear to be forming around $0.00003833–$0.00003848, where price repeatedly failed to close above. On the downside, $0.00003818 acted as a temporary floor, but the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern late in the session suggests further downward pressure.

Moving averages for the 15-minute chart (20SMA and 50SMA) crossed into a bearish alignment by mid-night, reinforcing short-term bearish bias. The daily chart also showed the 50DMA approaching the 200DMA from below, hinting at potential bearish divergence in the longer term. RSI remained in neutral territory around 50–55, but failed to confirm any bullish breakouts, while MACD crossed into negative territory, signaling fading momentum.

Bollinger Bands expanded overnight, aligning with the increased volatility. Price spent a significant portion of the day near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions at times. However, the absence of a strong rebound suggests weak conviction among buyers. Volume and turnover spiked during late-night hours, but price action diverged from volume, with key declines occurring on relatively low volume. This divergence may indicate a lack of conviction or potential exhaustion in the current trend.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the overnight swing from $0.00003855 to $0.00003782 show key levels at 0.00003833 (38.2%) and 0.00003818 (61.8%). A breakdown below 61.8% could trigger a retest of earlier support near $0.00003792 and even lower, depending on the continuation of the bearish trend.

Looking ahead, APTBTC faces the critical test of $0.00003818 as a near-term support. A break below that could accelerate the trend lower. However, buyers may attempt to defend the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $0.00003833. Traders should remain cautious of the bearish divergence in RSI and the potential for a continuation of the current trend. Volatility is expected to remain elevated if the pair continues testing key levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy focuses on identifying and capitalizing on bearish divergence in RSI and MACD while price is consolidating near Fibonacci retracement levels. It suggests entering short positions when RSI forms a bearish divergence (lower high in price while RSI forms a higher high) and MACD crosses into negative territory. A stop-loss is placed above the nearest resistance level (e.g., $0.00003848), and a target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given the recent price behavior on APTBTC, this strategy could have generated a short signal late on 2025-09-23, with a target of $0.00003818 and a stop above $0.00003848. The trade would have been confirmed by the bearish engulfing pattern and increasing volume during the dip.