Market Overview: API3/Tether (API3USDT) – October 4, 2025

• Price declined from $0.8321 to $0.8122, forming bearish momentum and key support at ~$0.815.
• RSI and MACD signaled weakening bullish momentum, with price trading below 20-period MA.
• Volatility expanded during a sharp drop to $0.8114, but volume surged on the decline, confirming bearish bias.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate contraction followed by expansion, signaling a potential trend resumption.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at $0.815 and $0.820 appear to be acting as key supports and resistances for short-term traders.

24-Hour Summary

At 12:00 ET–1 on October 3, API3/Tether (API3USDT) opened at $0.8161, peaked at $0.8321, and closed at $0.8122 at 12:00 ET October 4. The 24-hour OHLC range was $0.8122 to $0.8321. Total volume traded was 1,463,416.93, and notional turnover was $1,199,240.16. The price action reflects bearish continuation amid elevated volatility and volume.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the past 24 hours suggests a bearish bias. After a brief rally to $0.8321, price reversed sharply lower to $0.8114, forming a bearish engulfing pattern during the session. A long lower shadow was seen around 03:00 ET as price briefly tested support at $0.8114 before consolidating around $0.813–$0.815. Notable resistance appears at ~$0.820–$0.825, while support is forming at ~$0.815 and ~$0.812. A doji at ~$0.820 and a long bearish candle at ~$0.823 indicate indecision and strengthening bearish sentiment.

Moving Averages

Using 15-minute data, the price closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming a bearish bias. On a daily chart, the 50-day MA appears to be above the 100-day and 200-day MAs, suggesting a broader consolidation phase. The short-term trend is bearish, with price potentially targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.812–$0.813 for near-term support.

MACD & RSI

MACD has turned negative, with the histogram showing bearish divergence as price declined. RSI dropped from ~60 to ~38 over the 24-hour period, indicating weakening momentum but not yet oversold conditions. The RSI remains below 50, supporting the view that the bearish trend is intact and could continue.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction prior to the sharp decline, followed by a noticeable expansion as volatility increased. The price closed near the lower band at $0.8122, suggesting a potential bounce or continuation of the bearish trend. A close above the mid-band could indicate a reversal, but that would require a strong reversal candle or volume spike.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp decline to $0.8114, confirming bearish conviction. Notional turnover increased in tandem, supporting the move lower. However, volume has since declined, indicating a potential pause in bearish momentum. Divergence between volume and price is not currently significant but should be monitored as a potential reversal signal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the key 15-minute swing from $0.8321 to $0.8114, the 61.8% level is at $0.819 and the 38.2% level is at $0.824. The daily swing from recent highs to the current low also shows similar retracement levels. Price has tested and bounced from the 61.8% level, suggesting it could serve as a key support or resistance in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest could look to exploit the bearish trend by using a combination of RSI and MACD divergence. Specifically, entering short positions when RSI drops below 50 and MACD histogram shows bearish expansion could align with the observed price behavior. Additionally, setting a stop-loss above the 20-period MA and targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.812–$0.813 may help manage risk. This approach would benefit from the current bearish momentum and could be validated using historical API3USDT data from similar volatility and volume patterns.