Market Overview: API3/Tether (API3USDT) – 2025-10-09

• API3/Tether fell 0.85% in 24 hours, closing at 0.8183 after a sharp intraday drop to 0.8040.
• Volatility remained elevated, with a 15-minute range of 0.8229 to 0.8097 in the last hour.
• RSI hit oversold territory and MACD showed bearish divergence, suggesting potential rebound risk.
• A notable volume spike occurred at the 0.8371–0.8411 level, reinforcing short-term support.
• Bollinger Bands expanded in the final 6 hours, reflecting increased uncertainty in price direction.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-09, API3/Tether (API3USDT) opened at 0.8715, hit an intraday high of 0.9040 and a low of 0.8040, and closed at 0.8183. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 15,623,159.16, while turnover amounted to 12,868,444.16 USD. The pair has shown a bearish bias, with a key support level emerging near 0.8160–0.8180 and resistance near 0.8400.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed multiple bearish reversal signals, including a dark cloud cover at 0.8902 and a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.8961. A key support level emerged between 0.8160 and 0.8180, where the price held during a test at 0.8101 and 0.8158. This area appears to be a consolidation zone following the 0.8304–0.8160 pullback. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the 0.8629–0.9040 move lies at 0.8471, suggesting potential near-term resistance.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both trended downward, with the 50SMA crossing below the 20SMA in a bearish death cross. On the daily chart, the 50SMA at 0.8426 continues to act as a key resistance, while the 200SMA at 0.8567 remains a distant ceiling. Price action suggests a weakening of the 50SMA as a dynamic support level, with repeated rejections below 0.8400.

MACD & RSI

The 12-26 MACD line turned bearish with a negative histogram and a crossover below zero, suggesting continued downward momentum. The RSI dipped below 30 in the final 4 hours, indicating oversold conditions. While this may signal a short-term rebound, the lack of bullish divergence or strong volume suggests the bearish trend is likely to persist. Traders should monitor RSI for a potential bounce above 40 as a possible reversal trigger.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the final 6 hours of the day, with the upper band peaking at 0.8274 and the lower band dropping to 0.8132. Price action remained within the bands, indicating contained movement but with a strong bearish bias. A contraction in volatility before 09:00 ET may signal a potential breakout, while a sustained close above the upper band could indicate a short-term reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 0.8371–0.8411, with over 244,272.81 traded units, suggesting a key level of interest. However, the price failed to hold above this level, indicating a lack of conviction. Turnover remained steady, but a divergence between rising volume and falling price suggests bearish exhaustion may be approaching. A significant volume bar above 0.8180 could signal a short-covering rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% retracement level of the 0.8629–0.9040 move at 0.8471 has been tested twice and acted as a key resistance. A breakdown below the 38.2% level at 0.8348 may accelerate the move toward 0.8160–0.8180. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level from the 0.8395–0.8629 move at 0.8475 may provide a near-term support zone if the trend reverses.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration involves entering a short position when the 50-period SMA crosses below the 200-period SMA on the daily chart and RSI falls below 30. A stop-loss is placed above the recent swing high, and the target is set at 38.2% of the Fibonacci retracement from the recent high to the current low. Historical data from this 24-hour period suggests that the conditions for this strategy were nearly met, with the 50SMA approaching the 200SMA and RSI dipping below 30. If confirmed in the next 24 hours, this strategy could offer a high-probability bearish trade.