Market Overview for Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT)

• Price drifted lower on the 24-hour 15-min chart, with AEURUSDT closing at 1.186, below the open.
• Volatility expanded after 17:00 ET, with a sharp drop followed by consolidation.
• Volume surged during the 15:45 ET hour, coinciding with the largest price swing.
• RSI remains neutral, but price appears to be testing a key 1.185 support level.
• Bollinger Bands have expanded, indicating increased short-term uncertainty.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03, Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT) opened at 1.1931, reached a high of 1.2008, and a low of 1.1720, closing at 1.186. The 24-hour total volume was 9,853.5, and the total turnover was approximately $11,682,000.

Price action over the past 24 hours has shown a bearish bias, with a broad pullback after a brief bullish bounce from 1.186. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 21:30 ET, following a strong upward move. Key support levels appear to be forming around the 1.185–1.187 range, while resistance is visible at 1.192–1.195.

Moving averages on the 15-min chart show the 20-period MA (around 1.190) below the 50-period MA (1.191), reinforcing the short-term bearish bias. The daily chart, however, shows the price above both the 50-period and 200-period MAs, suggesting a longer-term sideways to slightly bullish trend. MACD is negative but flattening, indicating slowing bearish momentum. RSI sits near 50, neutral territory, with no clear overbought or oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands have seen a significant expansion, particularly during the 15:45–16:00 ET window, coinciding with the sharp drop to 1.1720. The move suggests increased volatility and uncertainty in the market. Price has since tested the lower band but has not yet broken it decisively, hinting at potential support holding. Volume during this window was 4581.4, the highest of the 24-hour period, suggesting meaningful participation during the pullback.

A strong Fibonacci retracement level at 61.8% (1.186) is currently being tested by the price. This coincides with the lower Bollinger Band, reinforcing the potential for a bounce or consolidation around this level. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement (1.190) appears to be acting as a minor resistance, while the 61.8% level (1.185) remains a key support. If the price holds above 1.185, it may suggest the 1.195 resistance could be tested again.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be built around key Fibonacci levels and RSI conditions. For example, a long entry might be triggered when the price rebounds off the 61.8% Fibonacci level and RSI moves above 50. A short entry could be considered when the price breaks below the 38.2% level and RSI dips below 50, with stops placed at the nearest support or resistance. Given the current price hovering near 1.186, a backtest from 2022-01-01 to present using this logic could reveal whether the 1.186 support holds or if a deeper correction is likely. Further, this strategy could be refined using volume and MACD confirmation for improved signal accuracy.