Market Overview: Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT)

• Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT) rallied to a 24-hour high of 1.1654 during the US night amid heavy volume and volatility.
• Price retracted sharply after forming bearish divergences and entered a consolidation phase near 1.14–1.15.
• Turnover spiked significantly in the early hours, but volume declined in the last 6 hours, hinting at potential exhaustion.
• RSI and MACD show weakening bullish momentum, with price hovering near key Fibonacci retracement levels.
• Key support at 1.1376 and resistance at 1.1654 appear critical for near-term direction.

At 12:00 ET−1 on 2025-10-21, Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT) opened at 1.0373, surged to 1.1654, and closed at 1.1486 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-22. Total volume reached 612,678.5 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 698,601.42 (in USD equivalent). The 24-hour candle reflects a bullish but volatile session with multiple retracements and strong volume surges.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a strong bearish reversal pattern after the early morning high at 1.1654, with the formation of a long upper wick and bearish divergence in volume and momentum. A key support level appears to have formed at 1.1376, where the price consolidated for several hours. The 1.1486–1.1533 range appears to be acting as a short-term resistance zone, with multiple failed breakouts suggesting a lack of conviction in bullish sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed over multiple times, indicating erratic price behavior and lack of clear trend. The 50-period MA currently sits above the 100-period MA, suggesting a possible retest of the 1.1486 level before confirming a reversal. The 200-period MA continues to act as a dynamic support, currently near 1.1376–1.14.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed the signal line in the morning, suggesting a short-lived bullish momentum that failed to sustain. RSI peaked near 70 in the early morning hours but has since declined sharply, currently hovering near 50, indicating neutral momentum. A reading above 60 would signal a potential bounce, but a break below 45 would suggest further consolidation or bearish continuation.

Bollinger Bands

Price has remained within the Bollinger Band range for most of the day, with volatility expanding during the early morning surge and contracting in the final hours. The narrowing of the bands in the last 4 hours suggests a period of consolidation, potentially leading to a breakout or breakdown from the 1.14–1.15 range. A move beyond the upper band would require a strong volume push, which has not yet materialized.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the early morning hours with the 1.1654 high but has since declined sharply, particularly in the last 6 hours. Notional turnover also followed a similar trend, with a peak near 1.16–1.17 and a rapid dropoff as price moved lower. The divergence between price and volume in the consolidation phase suggests weakening conviction on the buy side.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the 1.0343 to 1.1654 swing is currently at 1.1191, a level the price has yet to test. The 38.2% level is near 1.1477, which the price briefly approached but failed to hold. Short-term Fibonacci levels from the 1.1376 to 1.1654 show key resistance at 1.1533 and support at 1.1444.

Backtest Hypothesis

A recent backtesting strategy aimed to detect the Morning-Star candlestick pattern for a hypothetical asset encountered a data limitation during an internal lookup. The Morning-Star pattern, typically a bullish reversal signal, involves a large bearish candle followed by a small-bodied candle and a bullish candle that engulfs the small body. If successfully identified in the raw OHLC data, this pattern could serve as a buy signal. In the case of Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether, the recent volatility and divergences suggest potential for a similar reversal, but confirmation would require precise pattern detection and volume validation. Given the erratic price movement and high turnover earlier in the session, backtesting such a pattern could offer insights into its effectiveness in this context.