Market Overview for Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT)

• Price opened at 1.0961, traded between 1.0998 and 1.07, and closed near 1.0904 after a volatile 24-hour period.
• Strong bearish momentum emerged after a sharp sell-off, confirmed by RSI and MACD divergence.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening and key support levels tested.
• High-volume breakdowns occurred at critical levels, notably below 1.09 and 1.085, indicating strong bearish pressure.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 1.089 and 1.085 were significant, with price showing hesitation above both.

Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT) opened at 1.0961 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET and traded as high as 1.0998 before a sharp decline brought it to a 24-hour low of 1.07. The pair closed near 1.0904 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 284,273.8, with notional turnover reaching 310,431.5, indicating significant activity during the bearish breakdown.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed multiple bearish signals throughout the period, including a strong breakdown below key support at 1.09 and a continuation of the decline into the 1.085 region. A doji formed near 1.0945, signaling indecision, but this was quickly invalidated by a large bearish candle breaking below it. A key engulfing pattern occurred during the early morning hours, confirming the continuation of the downtrend. The price has been unable to retest and hold above 1.093–1.094, suggesting that near-term bullish momentum is weak.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100- and 200-period MAs, forming a bearish crossover. This further supports the view that the short- and medium-term trend remains bearish, with little resistance ahead unless there is a reversal in momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and remained below the signal line, confirming the bearish momentum. RSI crossed into oversold territory briefly near the 24-hour low, but the rebound failed to produce a convincing reversal. This divergence between price and momentum indicators suggests that the market is still in the early stages of a potential bearish phase, with further downside potential until a sustained recovery is seen.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a marked expansion following the large sell-off, indicating heightened volatility. Price has remained well below the midline for much of the session, staying in the lower band region. This suggests that bearish pressure remains intact, and a retest of the midline may face resistance unless there is a surge in buying interest.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown below 1.09, particularly around the 01:30–02:00 ET window, with a massive 37,919.4 volume candle confirming the bearish move. Turnover spiked as well, aligning with the volume increases. Later in the session, volume declined significantly, suggesting a lack of follow-through buying. This divergence could signal an exhaustion of sellers, though not enough to reverse the trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels were tested during the decline. The 1.09 level was a critical retracement (61.8% from the 1.07 low to the 1.0998 high), and its breakdown marked a strong bearish signal. The 1.085 level (38.2% retracement) also failed to hold, and price fell further. These levels are likely to remain relevant in the near term, with a retest of the 1.085–1.09 zone expected to determine the next directional bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish technical setup and the confirmed breakdown of key support levels, a short-selling strategy could be backtested using a simple price-based trigger at the 1.09–1.085 zone. A stop-loss would be placed above the 1.094–1.095 resistance area, and a take-profit target might be set at the 1.08–1.075 range. This approach leverages the current momentum and key Fibonacci levels, making it compatible with the observed market structure. However, as always, the strategy should be tested over a larger historical sample and adjusted for volatility and slippage.