Market Overview for Amp/Tether (AMPUSDT) – October 7, 2025

• Price action shows a bearish drift amid volatile swings and thinning bullish momentum.
• RSI and MACD signal weakening bullish impetus, with RSI entering oversold territory toward the close.
• Volume spiked during early bearish moves, suggesting short-term conviction in the downward trend.
• Bollinger Bands widen after a contraction, indicating heightened uncertainty and potential for continuation.
• A key support level forms near 0.003155, with resistance likely at 0.003205 based on 15-minute swing highs.

Amp/Tether (AMPUSDT) opened at 0.003203 on October 6, 2025 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.003076 on October 7, 2025 at 12:00 ET. The price hit an intraday high of 0.003228 and fell to a low of 0.003057. Total traded volume for the 24-hour period was 259,863,518.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $824,421.21, calculated using the average close price of 0.003176.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a bearish bias, with price breaking below multiple minor resistance levels and consolidating near key support at 0.003155. Notable patterns include a bearish engulfing candle at 0.003169–0.003173 on the 10:15 ET bar, signaling a shift in momentum. A morning session high at 0.003228 failed to hold, resulting in a retracement that has seen a 7.8% drawdown. The formation of a tight trading range during the early hours suggests a period of indecision before the bearish breakout.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50) on the 15-minute chart show a bearish crossover in the final 3 hours of the day, reinforcing the downward trend. The 50-period MA is currently bearishly crossed below the 20-period MA, suggesting continuation is probable. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, but the price remains below the 50-period MA, indicating a broader bearish bias without strong reversal signals.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative after 8:00 ET, with the signal line confirming bearish divergence. RSI dipped below 30 in the final hour, indicating oversold conditions and potential for a near-term bounce. However, the bearish momentum remains strong, as both indicators are trending downward. The MACD histogram is shrinking in size, hinting at fatigue in the downward move, but RSI has yet to show a strong rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the afternoon, with price trading closer to the lower band during the final 4 hours. A brief volatility contraction occurred between 4:00 AM and 6:00 AM, which led to a sharp breakout. The current wide band reflects increased market uncertainty and may precede a period of consolidation or a directional move. Price remains within the channel but is skewed toward the lower boundary, which could test the 0.003155 level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was highest during the bearish move from 7:00 AM to 9:00 AM ET, with notable spikes exceeding 19 million units in the 7:45 AM and 8:15 AM bars. Turnover during this period also increased, confirming the bearish move with strong conviction. However, volume during the final 2 hours of the day dropped despite a continuation of the decline, indicating weakening participation. This divergence may hint at an exhaustion phase in the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels based on the morning high of 0.003228 and the afternoon low of 0.003155 show that price currently rests near the 61.8% retracement level (0.003170). This suggests the market is testing critical support and resistance from the morning session. The 38.2% level (0.003193) acted as a minor resistance during the afternoon, with price failing to hold above it. A break below 0.003155 would confirm a deeper leg lower into the next Fibonacci level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum and key Fibonacci levels at play, a potential backtest strategy could involve shorting at the 0.003193 resistance level with a stop just above the 0.003205 swing high and a target near the 0.003155 support zone. This setup aligns with the bearish engulfing pattern and the divergence in RSI and MACD. Given the recent volume divergence, the strategy would look to confirm a breakout below 0.003155 before entering a second short position. The approach would benefit from tight risk management, as the RSI is currently in oversold territory and could lead to a temporary bounce if buyers step in.