Market Overview for Alpine F1 Team Fan Token/Tether (ALPINEUSDT)

• Price declined from a 24-hour high of $1.50 to close near $1.374 at 12:00 ET, reflecting bearish momentum.
• A key resistance at $1.45 and a support at $1.364 are in focus, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aligning near $1.364.
• Volatility surged during the early hours of the trading day, with volume peaking at over 484k USDT in one 15-minute candle.
• MACD turned negative and RSI dropped into oversold territory, indicating potential for a short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the sell-off, showing a period of increased uncertainty in the market.

1. Opening and Price Movement

The Alpine F1 Team Fan Token/Tether (ALPINEUSDT) opened at $1.419 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $1.50 before declining to a low of $1.319. The price closed at $1.374 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. Over the 24-hour period, total volume amounted to 10,580,629.51 and notional turnover reached 14,949,500.64 USDT, with the heaviest volume occurring just after 11:00 AM ET.

2. Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a bearish continuation pattern with a series of lower highs and lower lows, punctuated by a large bearish engulfing candle at $1.45–$1.476 on the 18:30–18:45 ET candle. A notable doji appeared near $1.424 at 23:45 ET–00:00 ET, suggesting indecision in the market. A key support level appears to be forming around $1.364, where the price paused after a sharp decline, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the $1.50 peak.

3. Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average has dropped below the 50-period line, signaling bearish momentum. The 50/100/200 daily MA lines show a similar bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward trend. The MACD line has turned negative and is below the signal line, indicating a weakening bullish trend. RSI fell sharply into oversold territory, reaching a low of 29, suggesting a potential short-term rebound could occur.

4. Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly during the price decline, particularly between 18:30–21:30 ET, reflecting heightened volatility. The price frequently traded near the lower band after reaching the $1.50 peak, especially after 21:30 ET. The recent consolidation near the 61.8% Fibonacci level may indicate a temporary pause in the sell-off as the market digests the move.

5. Volume and Turnover

Volume and turnover data indicate a strong sell-off during the early hours of the session. The most significant volume spike occurred at 11:00 AM ET, with nearly 484k USDT traded in one 15-minute interval. The price decline coincided with a sharp increase in turnover, suggesting active selling pressure. However, a divergence appears after 00:00 ET, where volume dropped while price continued to fall, indicating potential exhaustion among sellers.

6. Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing high at $1.50 and the swing low at $1.319, the key levels include 38.2% at $1.406 and 61.8% at $1.364. The price briefly found support at the 61.8% level, which may serve as a critical area to watch for potential reversal or continuation.

7. Forward Outlook and Risk

The price appears to be in a consolidation phase near the $1.364 support level, with momentum indicators suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, a breakdown below $1.364 could signal a deeper correction toward the $1.30–$1.28 range. Investors should remain cautious of potential bearish follow-through if volume increases at the next leg down.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a short position on a bearish engulfing pattern with a stop-loss placed above the recent high of the candle. A take-profit is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the immediate swing move. The strategy would be activated if RSI confirms overbought conditions (above 70) and MACD remains negative. Given the recent bearish engulfing pattern and RSI entering oversold territory, this setup appears to align with the conditions outlined. The key risk is a false breakout above the $1.45 resistance level, which could invalidate the short bias and trigger a rally back toward the $1.50 level.