Market Overview for Algorand/Tether (ALGOUSDT) - 2025-11-05

Summary
• Price action showed sharp bearish momentum from 18:30 to 20:30 ET before consolidating mid-day.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions, followed by a divergence.
• High volatility confirmed by Bollinger Band expansion and volume spikes.

The ALGOUSDT pair opened at 0.1574 on 2025-11-04 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1590 on 2025-11-05 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.1615 and a low of 0.1448 over the past 24 hours. Total volume amounted to 30,564,562.0 with notional turnover reaching 4,645.39 USD.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick chart revealed a bearish continuation with a deep pullback into support near 0.1473, which was tested twice. A notable Bullish Engulfing pattern formed near 0.1473 around 22:00 ET, which failed to reverse the downtrend. Key resistance levels currently lie at 0.1585–0.1600, with support at 0.1550 and 0.1490.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed below the price, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the price remains below the 200DMA and 100DMA, indicating a longer-term downtrend. The 50DMA is approaching a possible crossover with the 100DMA, signaling a potential continuation of the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into bearish territory and remained negative throughout the session, confirming ongoing sell pressure. The RSI approached overbought conditions during a late-night rebound but failed to hold above 50, signaling weak momentum. A bearish divergence emerged as RSI peaked before price, hinting at a potential further pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly between 20:30 and 23:00 ET, with price touching the lower Bollinger Band multiple times. The current price of 0.1590 sits near the middle band, indicating a consolidation phase after the recent selloff. A contraction in the bands is expected if the pair remains in this range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late-night and early-morning hours, especially around 0.1490 and 0.1530, confirming key support levels. However, volume declined during the mid-day rally, signaling a lack of conviction in the upside. A divergence between price and volume was observed in the late morning, suggesting potential bearish continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the 0.1448 low and 0.1615 high show the current price near the 61.8% retracement level at 0.1565, suggesting a possible bounce or retest of the 50% level at 0.1537. On the daily chart, a key 61.8% retracement level near 0.1550–0.1560 may act as support over the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtested strategy based on buying ALGOUSDT on a Bullish Engulfing pattern and holding for three days revealed significant underperformance over the period 1 Jan 2022 – 5 Nov 2025. The total return was -62.4%, with an average trade return of -2.18%, suggesting the pattern has limited predictive power in this pair. The bearish bias observed today, with multiple failed attempts to reverse the trend, aligns with the backtest results, reinforcing caution around pattern-based strategies without additional filters.

Looking ahead, a test of the 0.1550–0.1560 level could provide a buying opportunity if bulls regain control, but given the current bearish momentum and weak volume confirmation, further downside remains a risk. Investors should watch for divergence in the RSI and any break below key support levels.