Market Overview for ALCXUSDT on 2025-10-08

• ALCXUSDT opened at $8.78 and closed at $8.81, trading within a range of $8.71–$8.91 with a 1.47% upward bias.
• Price tested a 15-minute support at $8.75 and resistance at $8.90, with bearish divergence on RSI signaling potential exhaustion.
• Volatility expanded after 8:00 ET as Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting increased trader activity and range-breaking pressure.
• Turnover spiked during the 8:30–9:30 ET rally, indicating strong buyer participation despite mixed candlestick signals.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 10:30 ET, followed by a doji at 12:00 ET, hinting at indecision and a possible pullback.

The ALCXUSDT pair opened at $8.78 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at $8.81 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-08. The price ranged between $8.71 and $8.91 over the 24-hour window, with total volume of 15,936.66 ALCX and a notional turnover of $138,701.21. The session saw a moderate upward drift despite intraday volatility and mixed momentum signals.

Structure & Formations

On the 15-minute chart, ALCXUSDT displayed a key support at $8.75 and a resistance at $8.90, which acted as a pivot for most of the session. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at $8.76–$8.83 on 2025-1008 103000–104500, followed by a doji at the session's high of $8.91. These patterns suggest a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with buyers showing strength but not yet consolidating control. A descending triangle formation from $8.83–$8.75 also emerged in the latter half of the session, hinting at potential bearish continuation.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed above price action during the early hours of the session, reinforcing the bullish trend. However, the 50-period MA started to flatten after 9:00 ET, indicating weakening upward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits above the 200-period MA, suggesting a longer-term bullish bias, though the 100-period MA shows a slight bearish crossover with the 50-period MA, signaling caution.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram displayed positive divergence during the morning rally, confirming bullish momentum, but started to flatten after 10:00 ET. The RSI reached 60 at the peak, suggesting overbought conditions, and dipped below 50 by 11:00 ET, reflecting bearish pressure. The RSI bottomed at 40 around 3:00 PM ET, indicating oversold territory, but failed to spark a strong rebound, suggesting a lack of conviction in the bearish move.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded after 8:00 ET as Bollinger Bands widened, with price action frequently testing the upper band during the 8:30–9:30 ET rally. By midday, the bands began to contract, indicating a potential consolidation phase. Price remained within the bands throughout the session, suggesting that while volatility increased, the market remained in a defined range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly during the 8:30–9:30 ET rally, with spikes of over 1,400 ALCX traded in individual 15-minute intervals. Notional turnover mirrored this, peaking at $13,711.51 during the 10:15–10:30 ET period. However, after 12:00 ET, both volume and turnover declined, indicating a slowdown in trade activity and possible exhaustion in the current trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were drawn from the $8.71 low to the $8.91 high, identifying a 61.8% retracement at $8.84 and a 38.2% retracement at $8.81. Price tested the 61.8% level at 10:30 ET and the 38.2% level at 12:00 ET, with the 38.2% level acting as a temporary support. These retracements align with key moving average levels and suggest a potential trading range ahead, with 8.81–8.84 likely to remain critical.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy for ALCXUSDT could involve entering a long position upon a bullish engulfing pattern forming at a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, with a stop-loss placed just below the nearest support and a take-profit target at the 61.8% retracement or key resistance. Given the recent price behavior and confirmed overbought conditions at the 61.8% level, such a strategy would aim to capture short-term rallies while managing downside risk. This approach aligns with the MACD divergence and RSI behavior observed during the morning rally, providing technical validation for the setup.