Market Overview for Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT): Volatility and Downtrend Confirmation

• Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) dropped from $9.99 to $9.40 over 24 hours, with volatility spiking mid-day.
• Key support levels tested at $9.70–$9.60, while overbought conditions faded after early morning highs.
• Volume surged during the selloff, with $9.51 as a recent pivot point and bearish momentum intact.
• RSI and MACD suggest exhaustion on the downside, but Bollinger Band contraction warns of potential breakouts.

At 12:00 ET – 1 on 2025-09-18, ALCXUSDT opened at $9.91 and advanced to a high of $9.99 within the next 12 hours. The pair then declined sharply, hitting a low of $9.40 before closing at $9.59 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 20,505.00 ALCX, with a notional turnover of $193,875.23. The price has shown a bearish bias, especially after a midday break below key support levels.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows multiple bearish signals, including a large inside bar at $9.95–$9.91 and a series of dark cloud cover patterns as the price pulled back from $9.99 to $9.70. A notable breakdown occurred from $9.95 to $9.85, with a key support level at $9.70 retested multiple times. A breakdown below $9.60 may confirm a new short-term bear trend, with the next target near $9.50.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price remains below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating bearish control. The daily chart shows the 50-period and 200-period MAs converging around $9.75–$9.80, with a clear breakdown below the 50-period MA confirming downward momentum. A retest of the 200-period MA would be a potential turning point.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned negative with bearish divergence, reinforcing the downward trend. RSI is currently at 32, suggesting oversold conditions but not yet triggering a reversal. This implies the selloff may pause temporarily, but the bearish bias remains intact unless RSI breaks above 45 with confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

The price has been highly volatile, breaking out of a tight Bollinger Band contraction around $9.85. It now rests at the lower band, indicating oversold territory but also a potential setup for a short-term bounce. A breakout above the middle band would require a strong reversal signal to suggest a longer-term recovery.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff, especially around $9.70–$9.65, with a sharp increase in notional turnover as the price dropped below $9.60. The volume/price divergence at $9.65 suggests a potential exhaustion point. However, confirmation of a reversal would require both a price rebound and a new volume peak.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing from $9.99 to $9.40, the key levels of 61.8% at $9.59 and 50% at $9.69 are currently in play. A rebound from $9.59 could test the 50% level, with further resistance at $9.70–$9.75. A breakdown below $9.59 would aim for the 38.2% at $9.55, and potentially $9.50 if bearish momentum continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests a combination of RSI oversold signals and volume confirmation as entry triggers. A short position is initiated when RSI drops below 35 and volume increases by 50% above the 20-period average. Stop-loss is placed at the most recent swing high, and a take-profit is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This strategy would have been triggered during the selloff around $9.59, aligning with the current price action and providing a structured approach to managing risk in a volatile market.