Market Overview: Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) – September 21, 2025

• Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) declined from 9.48 to 9.28 in 24 hours, showing bearish momentum.
• RSI reached oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term reversal.
• Volatility increased as price tested key support levels around 9.25–9.30.
• Bollinger Band contraction in early morning was followed by a breakout to the downside.
• Volume surged in the early hours of 2025-09-21, confirming bearish continuation.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-20, Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at 9.42, hit a high of 9.49, and closed at 9.28 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21. The 24-hour volume was approximately 20,233.31 units, with total turnover amounting to 183,597.97 USD. Price action showed a bearish bias with multiple breakdowns near key support levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart showed a strong bearish bias, with a key support zone forming between 9.25 and 9.30. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed around 09:30 ET, confirming the breakdown from the 9.35–9.40 resistance cluster. A long lower shadow at 05:30 ET suggested a failed attempt to bounce back, while a doji at 08:15 ET signaled indecision before the final leg down.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below key price levels, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period moving averages have not crossed recently, indicating a mixed intermediate-term outlook. Price remains below the 200-day MA, suggesting a longer-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD histogram showed a sharp bearish divergence after 09:00 ET, coinciding with the breakdown of 9.35. RSI moved into oversold territory below 30 for a period, signaling potential for a short-term bounce but not a reversal. The MACD line crossed below the signal line at 09:15 ET, further confirming the bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded following a period of contraction between 00:00 and 05:00 ET. Price broke out below the lower Bollinger Band at 09:30 ET, indicating strong bearish pressure. The 15-minute band width reached a 24-hour high, suggesting a continuation of the current volatility.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred at 06:00 ET (530.0k units), coinciding with a sharp move up from 9.42 to 9.49. However, this was quickly reversed, suggesting selling pressure at higher levels. Notional turnover also spiked at that time. A second volume peak at 09:30 ET confirmed the breakdown from 9.35. Divergences between price and turnover were not significant, but volume confirmed the bearish move in the final 4 hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level was identified at 9.34 from the 06:00 ET high of 9.49. Price failed to hold this level and continued down to 9.28, with the 38.2% retracement at 9.40 also acting as resistance. Daily Fibonacci levels from recent highs will need to be reevaluated if a reversal occurs.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the confirmed bearish bias and oversold RSI levels, a potential backtest strategy could involve shorting ALCXUSDT with a stop above the 9.40–9.42 resistance cluster and a target at 9.20–9.25. Entries could be triggered on a close below the 15-minute 20-period moving average, with trailing stops as price moves lower. This approach leverages both trend and momentum indicators to capitalize on short-term bearish continuation.