Market Overview for Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) – September 18, 2025

• Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) rose from $9.4 to $9.95, forming a bullish breakout pattern with strong volume confirmation.
• Momentum accelerated above 20-period MA, with RSI entering overbought territory and expanding Bollinger Bands.
• Late-day selling pressure emerged, pushing price below key Fibonacci levels and triggering bearish divergence in MACD.
• Turnover surged past $15M with peak volatility at $9.87–$9.92, signaling potential for further consolidation or reversal.

Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at $9.4 on September 17 at 12:00 ET and closed at $9.93 by 12:00 ET the next day, reaching an intraday high of $9.95 and a low of $9.4. Total volume amounted to 25,669.22, and notional turnover exceeded $253,010 over the 24-hour window. A sharp rally unfolded from 6:00 PM to 10:00 PM ET, followed by a pullback during overnight Asian and European hours. The pair appears to have broken above a key resistance cluster near $9.8, though late-day bearish divergence hints at possible profit-taking.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure shows a strong bullish reversal pattern starting around 8:00 PM ET, with a bullish engulfing pattern forming as prices moved from $9.63 to $9.79. A key resistance level at $9.8–$9.85 was tested and broken. Later, a series of long-bodied green candles from $9.87 to $9.95 indicated strong buying interest. However, a bearish divergence emerged in the 5:00–6:00 AM ET timeframe, with a high at $9.95 followed by a lower high at $9.93, suggesting potential exhaustion. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $9.84 and a 38.2% retracement at $9.89 became significant levels for price action.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were decisively crossed to the upside, confirming bullish momentum. The 50-period MA is currently at ~$9.75, while the 100-period MA is at ~$9.70. Price is now above the upper Bollinger Band, which expanded significantly during the rally, reflecting heightened volatility. A contraction in the Bollinger Bands was observed earlier in the day before the breakout, indicating a potential turning point.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line near $9.80 and remained in positive territory, reinforcing bullish momentum. However, a bearish divergence appeared as the price hit a high of $9.95 while the MACD failed to reach a new peak. RSI surged above 70 into overbought territory, peaking at 76 before retreating, suggesting short-term exhaustion. The RSI is currently at ~72, still in overbought territory, indicating that a pullback or consolidation phase may be ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 5:00–6:00 PM ET rally, reaching a peak of ~1,950 units in a single 15-minute candle. Turnover increased in tandem, particularly between $9.8 and $9.95. However, the late-day bearish divergence in price and MACD occurred alongside moderate volume, indicating limited selling pressure. A large bearish candle at $9.95–$9.91 recorded ~210 units in volume, but it failed to push price below $9.93, suggesting short-term support may hold.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings show key Fibonacci levels at $9.84 (61.8%), $9.89 (38.2%), and $9.92 (23.6%). The pullback from $9.95 to $9.91 tested the 23.6% level, which held temporarily. On the daily chart, a major Fibonacci support at $9.70 (38.2%) and $9.66 (61.8%) could become relevant if the trend reverses. These levels could act as psychological barriers for the next 24 hours, especially if volume increases on the downside.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy would involve entering long on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close above the 50-period MA and a RSI above 55. A stop-loss could be placed at the nearest Fibonacci retracement below the entry price, such as the 61.8% level. For shorting, a bearish divergence in MACD with a close below the 20-period MA and RSI above 70 could serve as a sell signal, with a stop above the 38.2% retracement. This approach aligns with the observed breakout and divergence patterns, suggesting a strategy that capitalizes on both momentum and pullback phases.

Looking ahead, the market may consolidate within the $9.84–$9.95 range before either breaking out to new highs or retesting support at $9.80. Investors should watch for a reversal pattern or a rejection at key Fibonacci levels, particularly if volume increases with bearish intent. While the current trajectory is bullish, overbought RSI and bearish MACD divergence suggest caution for aggressive longs in the next 24 hours.