Market Overview for Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT)

Summary
• ALCXUSDT opened at $12.44, reached a high of $15.50, and closed at $12.51.
• A bullish breakout attempt from $13.50–$15.50 was rejected with heavy volume.
• RSI and MACD show weakening momentum after the intraday peak.

Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at $12.44 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $15.50, and closed at $12.51 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET. The total volume over 24 hours was 1,228,597.35 and the total turnover was approximately $15,870,300. The price action shows a failed breakout from a short-term bullish range, with renewed volatility pulling price lower into a consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bullish “engulfing” pattern at the start of the rally, confirming a short-term reversal from $12.93 to $13.83. However, after reaching a high of $15.50, a bearish “shooting star” at $15.16 followed by a bearish “dark cloud cover” at $14.40 signaled a potential top. Key support levels now appear to be forming around $13.50–$13.00, while $15.50 and $14.95 acted as overhead resistance. A breakdown below $12.25 could extend the range to $11.50.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed slightly below the 20SMA at $12.86 and the 50SMA at $13.03, suggesting bearish short-term bias. The 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA during the session, hinting at a potential bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50DMA is near $12.90, with the 200DMA at $12.30. Price appears to be testing the 50DMA as a dynamic support zone.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line at $0.20, confirming bearish momentum after the $15.50 high. RSI, which had surged to 62 during the rally, has since dropped to 48, signaling a neutral-to-bearish shift. While RSI has not yet hit overbought territory, the divergences in price and RSI suggest weakening bullish conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the $13.50–$15.50 rally, pushing price outside the upper band temporarily before a sharp contraction began. The bands have since narrowed, with price trading within a tighter range between $12.25 and $12.75. This suggests a potential pause in the larger move and could precede a breakout or further consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to $1,228,597.35 during the $13.50–$15.50 rally, confirming the initial bullish impulse. However, volume has since declined, with turnover dropping below average levels as price consolidates. This divergence suggests reduced conviction from buyers, increasing the risk of a breakdown below $12.50.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the $11.57 low to $15.50 high, the 38.2% retracement sits at $13.50, which coincides with a key support level. The 61.8% retracement is at $12.93, where a bearish reversal began. On the 15-minute chart, price has found support near the $12.50 level, which aligns with the 50% retracement of the recent $12.21–$12.73 swing.

Backtest Hypothesis

The “Bullish Engulfing” strategy tested on a 3-day horizon may provide insight into whether the early morning reversal pattern on 2025-11-12 would have yielded a viable trade. Given the subsequent pullback and bearish divergence in momentum indicators, it’s likely that the pattern would have produced a short-lived trade. A 3-day holding period would likely have led to a loss as the initial bullish impulse faded. This reinforces the caution suggested by the MACD and RSI readings, and supports the idea that the rally lacked follow-through conviction.