Market Overview for Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT)

• ALCXUSDT traded in a bearish bias after testing 8.31, with momentum failing to confirm a breakout
• Volatility increased in the afternoon as price dropped below 8.16 and settled near 7.79
• MACD and RSI both signaled weakening momentum as overbought levels were abandoned
• Volume spiked during the sell-off but failed to confirm strong follow-through buying
• Fibonacci retracement levels now act as key near-term support at 7.68 and 7.72

Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at 8.08 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 8.31, and closed at 7.79 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-14. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of 49,535.19 ALCX and a turnover of $424,686. The pair experienced a bearish reversal as price abandoned prior highs and settled near key Fibonacci retracement levels.

Structure & Formations

Price broke a key resistance at 8.31 but failed to hold it, forming a bearish engulfing pattern and a lower high. A descending triangle formation became visible as price tested 7.77 and 7.72 support levels. The 15-minute candles showed a bearish continuation, especially between 06:00–08:00 ET, where multiple rejection candles formed near 7.81. A doji appeared at 10:15 ET, indicating indecision, followed by a bearish continuation.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were bearish, with the 50 MA crossing below the 20 MA in the early morning. For the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages were also bearish, with price settling below all three. This alignment signals a broader downtrend that could reinforce short-term bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned negative after 19:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dropped from overbought territory above 70 to neutral levels, reaching as low as 45. This move suggests a lack of buying pressure and could signal further downside. A potential oversold condition appears to be developing near 30, but no confirmation has yet occurred.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility increased during the afternoon sell-off. Price fell below the lower band briefly at 08:00 ET, suggesting a short-term overreaction. While this could indicate a potential rebound, the broader trend remains bearish.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly during the sell-off phase, peaking at 1,365.93 ALCX between 06:45–08:15 ET. However, turnover failed to confirm strong selling pressure, suggesting mixed participation. A divergence between price and volume was observed after 10:30 ET, indicating weakening momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 8.31 high to 7.64 low include 7.72 (38.2%), 7.68 (61.8%), and 7.64 (100%). Price tested 7.72 twice and now appears to be consolidating near 7.77. A break below 7.68 could trigger a deeper correction toward 7.64.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on RSI overbought signals to time short entries on ALCXUSDT. Entering trades when RSI crosses above 70 and exiting at the close of the same day could help capture bearish momentum in a volatile, range-bound market like this one. Given the recent RSI overbought to oversold shift, this strategy might prove effective if volume and price action continue to align with bearish momentum.