Market Overview: Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT)

• ALCXUSDT rallied from 8.83 to a high of 9.10 before retreating to close at 8.85, showing early bullish momentum.
• Key resistance at 9.05–9.10 was tested and rejected, with bearish divergence forming near 9.07.
• Volatility expanded during the 18:00–20:00 ET window, with volume surging to 1,449.41k.
• RSI and MACD showed weakening momentum, suggesting possible near-term profit-taking.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest support around 8.82–8.85 and resistance near 8.96–9.05.

24-Hour Price Summary

Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at 8.86 on 2025-10-08 12:00 ET and reached a high of 9.10 before closing at 8.85 on 2025-10-09 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 22,641.65, with notional turnover standing at ~$192,245. The pair displayed a volatile yet largely range-bound profile, with a strong morning rally and late-day consolidation.

Structural Formations and Key Levels

Price tested resistance at 9.05–9.10 multiple times, with a strong rejection observed after a bullish engulfing pattern at 9.03–9.08. A key bearish divergence formed between the 9.07 and 9.04 levels, suggesting that buyers may be losing momentum. Notable support emerged at 8.82–8.85, where the price found a bottom after a sharp sell-off. A 15-minute doji at 8.84 (2025-10-09 04:00 ET) further highlighted indecision in the market.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart crossed above the price during the morning rally, providing initial bullish confirmation. However, the 50 EMA began to flatten out by midday as bearish momentum increased. On the daily chart, the 50-period EMA remains above the 100 and 200-period lines, suggesting a neutral-to-bullish stance for longer-term traders. The MACD showed a bearish crossover around 9.03, with a declining histogram signaling waning bullish conviction. RSI entered overbought territory at 70+ during the morning surge but declined into neutral territory as the day progressed.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded during the midday surge, with the 9.05–9.10 range forming a clear upper band. Price tested the upper band twice without breaking through, indicating strong resistance. The midday volatility contraction around 8.85–8.87 coincided with a consolidation phase, followed by an expansion in volatility as selling pressure emerged. The closing price at 8.85 sits below the 20-period moving average, suggesting a bearish bias for the near term.

Volume and Turnover Trends

Volume spiked during the morning rally, with the 15-minute candle ending at 9.08 showing the highest volume at 1,449.41k. This was followed by a sharp decline in volume during the afternoon sell-off, indicating weak follow-through. Turnover aligned closely with volume, showing no significant divergences. A large volume spike at 9.03 (2025-10-09 04:30 ET) coincided with a bearish price reversal, signaling potential bear sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

On the 15-minute chart, the key Fibonacci retracement levels are as follows: 61.8% at 8.96, 50% at 8.91, and 38.2% at 8.87. Price found support at 8.82–8.85, which corresponds to the 38.2% retracement of the 8.82–9.05 swing. On the daily chart, 61.8% retracement is at 8.91, with 8.85 as the 50% level. The price currently appears to be consolidating near the 50% Fibonacci level, which could offer a key pivot point for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed resistance at 9.05–9.10 and the bearish divergence noted in RSI and MACD, a backtest strategy could focus on a sell setup on a close below 8.85 with a stop loss above 9.03. A trailing stop could be placed at 8.75–8.80 for risk management. This strategy aligns with the bearish momentum observed in the last 48 hours and leverages the Fibonacci and moving average levels as key decision points. A backtest would help quantify the win rate and risk-reward profile of such an approach, especially in the context of high volatility and divergent momentum indicators.