Market Overview: Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) on 2025-10-06

• Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) closed higher at 9.11, up from 8.85, with strong buying momentum in the last 6 hours.
• Price broke above 9.00, forming bullish engulfing and breakout patterns after consolidating between 8.75–8.90.
• Volatility surged in the last 12 hours, with volume tripling and turnover confirming the upward move.
• RSI reached overbought territory, suggesting short-term pullbacks may occur, but MACD remains bullish.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, and price remains above the 20-period MA, indicating continuation bias unless volume weakens.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06, Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at 8.85, touched a high of 9.13, and closed at 9.11 after a 24-hour session reaching a low of 8.71. Total volume traded was 23,325.97 units, with a notional turnover of $212,937.10. The pair has shown clear strength in the second half of the session, with sharp breakouts and accumulation.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours reveals a clear base forming between 8.75 and 8.90, followed by a breakout above 9.00. A series of bullish engulfing patterns emerged after 03:00 ET, confirming the resumption of an upward bias. A key resistance level appears at 9.00–9.05, with a follow-through above 9.10 signaling deeper conviction. Key support levels are seen at 8.90 and 8.80, where the pair could retest if bearish momentum emerges. A morning doji near 8.85 suggests indecision before the sharp rebound.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA mid-session, signaling a short-term bullish crossover. The 50-period MA is now trending upward, and price remains above both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is still below the 200-period MA, but the 100-period MA has started to flatten, indicating a potential near-term trend shift. MACD remains positive, with a strong histogram suggesting continued upward momentum, though RSI is approaching overbought territory (above 70), hinting at possible short-term exhaustion.

Volatility and Fibonacci Levels

Bollinger Bands have expanded in the last 6 hours, with price pushing the upper band upward, signaling increased volatility and bullish conviction. The 20-period MA remains within the band, supporting the idea that the upward move is in line with the mean. Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing low at 8.71 and high at 9.13, the 61.8% level is near 9.03, which aligns with recent resistance. A pullback to the 38.2% level at 8.95 could provide a reentry opportunity for buyers.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent breakout above key resistance and the confirmation by volume and momentum indicators, a backtest could be structured to enter long positions on a close above 9.00 with a stop below 8.90 and a target at 9.15–9.20. The 15-minute bullish crossovers and the RSI divergence suggest the move has room to extend, provided volume remains healthy. A trailing stop at the 20-period MA could manage risk while capturing potential gains. This hypothesis aligns with the observed patterns and reinforces the technical setup.