Market Overview for Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) – 2025-10-04

• ALCXUSDT dropped to a 24-hour low of $8.68 amid declining momentum and waning volume.
• A key bearish breakdown below the 9.0–9.02 consolidation range suggests short-term weakness.
• MACD and RSI both signal oversold territory, hinting at potential near-term rebound.
• Volatility remained subdued, with price clustering near the lower Bollinger Band.
• Fibonacci retracements suggest potential support at 8.86 and 8.71 ahead of 24-hour close.

Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at $8.94 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and closed at $8.68 on October 4 at the same time, recording a 24-hour low of $8.68 and high of $9.11. Total volume reached 12,853.81, while notional turnover hit $64,000. A bearish continuation appears likely amid declining volume and price action.

Structure & Formations

Price broke below a key horizontal support at 9.0–9.02 during the early morning hours, confirming a bearish shift. A long lower wick appeared at 8.96–8.97 in the early session, suggesting rejection of support. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 8.97–8.92 and a morning doji near 8.91 signaled indecision among buyers. The price has since settled within a tight trading range between $8.8 and $8.9, with the lower Bollinger Band acting as a dynamic support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA sits at ~$8.86, while the 50-period MA is at ~$8.89, showing a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 MA alignment is bearish, with the price closing below all three lines, reinforcing the downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line has fallen below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI has dipped into oversold territory (~30), suggesting a short-term rebound is possible but not guaranteed. The divergence between volume and RSI could signal a potential reversal if volume picks up on a bounce.

Bollinger Bands

The price is trading near the lower Bollinger Band, with a narrow channel indicating low volatility. A breakout or sharp expansion of the bands could signal a significant move either direction, though the current bias remains to the downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume dipped in the early hours but picked up slightly after the 8.90–8.92 breakdown. Total volume for the 24-hour period reached ~12,853.81, with turnover of ~$64,000. The price action and volume diverged during the 8.90–8.95 consolidation phase, indicating weak conviction in the move.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, a pullback from $9.05–$9.11 saw the price retrace to ~61.8% at $8.92 and then to 78.6% at $8.83. The 8.86 and 8.71 levels correspond to 50% and 61.8% retracements from the 8.90–8.68 move. A break below $8.83 could target the next major support at $8.71.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering long positions on bullish divergences in RSI and MACD, with a stop-loss placed below key Fibonacci levels. This could align with a potential bounce from the current oversold condition. The hypothesis would need to be validated over multiple sessions, especially given the recent bearish momentum and volume contraction.