Market Overview for Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) on 2025-09-16

• Price surged from $9.32 to $9.57 before consolidating near $9.54 at the 24-hour close.
• Volatility and volume increased significantly, especially between 19:00–21:00 ET, confirming breakout strength.
• RSI reached overbought territory, indicating potential pullback risk ahead.
• Bollinger Bands showed a strong expansion phase as price moved above the upper band.
• Key resistance appears at $9.55–9.58, while $9.43–9.45 offers immediate support.

Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at $9.32 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $9.58 before closing at $9.54 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET. The total 24-hour volume was 23,269.57 ALCX, with a notional turnover of approximately $218,497.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period exhibited a clear bullish breakout, forming a rising wedge pattern between 19:00 and 21:00 ET, which was followed by a bullish engulfing pattern at the end of the breakout. This was later confirmed by a bullish continuation pattern in the following 15-minute candles. The price found strong support at $9.43–9.45 and resistance at $9.55–9.58, with a doji forming near the top of the wedge, signaling indecision and a potential consolidation phase ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages moved in tandem with the upward trend, confirming the strength of the move. The 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA during the breakout, reinforcing the bullish sentiment. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) suggest a longer-term bullish bias with the price above all three, indicating that the current uptrend is in sync with broader market sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a strong positive divergence, confirming the bullish momentum. The RSI peaked at 72, entering overbought territory, which suggests a potential short-term correction or consolidation phase. While the RSI may pull back, it remains above 50, indicating that buyers are still in control. A close below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $9.46 could trigger a deeper pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply as the price moved above the upper Bollinger Band toward the end of the breakout, confirming the strength of the move. The 20-period band width widened, suggesting increased trader interest and speculative activity. However, the price has since retreated slightly, consolidating near the middle band, indicating a possible pause in the upward move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the breakout phase, especially between 19:00–21:00 ET, when the price moved from $9.39 to $9.58. This confirms the strength of the move. Notional turnover increased in tandem with volume, indicating aligned price and dollar action. However, in the last few hours, volume has dropped, suggesting a possible exhaustion of momentum and a higher likelihood of a pullback.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price tested the 61.8% retracement level at $9.46 and bounced higher. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level at $9.35 has held as strong support in previous sessions. The current price is near the 78.6% retracement level, suggesting potential for either a continuation or a retest of the 61.8% level for confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could use a breakout of the upper Bollinger Band on the 15-minute chart, combined with a golden cross between the 20 and 50-period moving averages, to trigger long entries. A stop-loss could be placed below the 15-minute low of the breakout candle, and a take-profit target could align with the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level. This approach would aim to capitalize on high-momentum moves while managing risk with defined stops and targets. Integrating RSI levels would also help filter false breakouts, ensuring entries are only taken when overbought conditions are not excessively extended.