Market Overview for AIXBTUSDT on 2025-10-11

• Price dropped sharply after 16:00 ET, reaching a 24-hour low of 0.0621.
• Volatility surged with intraday range of 38.3%, driven by heavy selling after 19:30 ET.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum, while Bollinger Bands widened, confirming increased uncertainty.
• Notable divergence in volume occurred after 21:00 ET, with volume spiking despite price decline.
• Price found temporary support at 0.0585 and may face resistance at 0.0615 in the near term.

The AIXBTUSDT pair opened at 0.0846 on 2025-10-10 at 16:00 ET and closed at 0.0606 on 2025-10-11 at 16:00 ET. The 24-hour range was 0.0855–0.0601, with a final close of 0.0606. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 196,967,958.5, while notional turnover was approximately $12,034,081.59.

The candlestick pattern over the 24-hour period suggests a strong bearish reversal from a bullish trend that was in place earlier in the day. The sharp sell-off beginning at 19:30 ET led to a 13.9% drop in price within 15 minutes and continued with a prolonged bearish bias. Key support was found around 0.0585–0.0590 in the late hours of the session, suggesting a possible short-term floor. Notable resistance levels are forming at 0.0610–0.0615, where the price has previously failed to break out of a consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

Significant bearish reversal patterns emerged throughout the session, including a long lower shadow at 19:30 ET and a strong dark cloud cover pattern around 20:45 ET. A doji at 21:15 ET indicated indecision after a sharp sell-off. The price also formed a descending wedge pattern from 21:00 ET to 05:00 ET, indicating a potential breakdown scenario. The 0.0585–0.0590 level appears to be the key short-term support based on the consolidation around this area late in the session.

Moving Averages

Using 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, the price remains significantly below both, indicating a strong bearish bias in the short term. The 20-period MA (0.0603) is slightly above the 50-period MA (0.0598), forming a very tight death cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is below the 100-period and 200-period MAs, confirming a longer-term bearish trend. The death cross pattern suggests bearish momentum is likely to continue in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained below zero for the duration of the session and crossed the signal line in bearish territory, confirming a bearish momentum phase. The histogram showed increasing bearish divergence in the late session. RSI dropped below 30 at 20:00 ET and stayed in oversold territory until the end of the session, suggesting the price may find short-term support. However, the slow RSI remains below 50, indicating weak bullish momentum. Divergence in RSI and price after 21:00 ET suggests potential for a short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly from 19:30 ET onward, indicating a period of heightened volatility. The price remained below the middle band for most of the session, with the lower band acting as a temporary floor. During the late-night consolidation phase, the price stayed within the bands, suggesting a potential return to range-bound trading. The widening bands also suggest an increase in market uncertainty and potential for further price swings.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply after 19:30 ET, coinciding with the price drop, and remained elevated through the night, with a peak at 21:15 ET. Notional turnover also increased dramatically during the sharp sell-off but showed signs of decreasing in the last 6 hours of the session. The volume-to-price divergence observed after 21:00 ET may signal a potential short-term bottoming process. However, the overall bearish volume bias supports continuation of the downward trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing (0.0855–0.0601), the price found temporary support at the 38.2% level (0.0696) and 61.8% level (0.0737). For the daily chart, retracement levels based on the broader move indicate potential resistance at 0.0634 and 0.0663. The price is currently consolidating near the 38.2% retracement level of the daily chart, suggesting further downward movement is possible if the support at 0.0585–0.0590 fails to hold.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering short positions on a bearish engulfing pattern or dark cloud cover pattern, with a stop loss placed above the recent swing high and a target at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level. This approach aligns with the bearish momentum observed in the recent price action and RSI divergence. The MACD and Bollinger Band expansion also support the bearish bias. A trailing stop could be used to capture potential further downside while managing risk. The high volatility and sharp sell-off seen in the last 24 hours suggest that this strategy could be effective in the near term, provided key support levels continue to hold as expected.