Market Overview for AIXBTUSDT on 2025-10-05

• Price surged to 0.101 intraday but retreated to close near 0.098 at 12:00 ET.
• Strong bullish momentum seen in early session with a 6.5% move from 0.095 to 0.100.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened; RSI hit overbought levels briefly.
• Volume spiked during the 05:00–06:00 ET window, confirming price breakouts.
• A potential support area forming around 0.096–0.0975 after a failed test at 0.095.

AIXBT/Tether (AIXBTUSDT) opened at 0.0945 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.098 on the same time one day later. The price hit a high of 0.101 and a low of 0.0942, with a total trading volume of 10,308,487.2 and a notional turnover of approximately $975,495. The session saw a strong bullish breakout, particularly in the early morning hours, followed by consolidation and a modest pullback.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a broad bullish structure in the early hours of 2025-10-05, with a sharp move from 0.095 to 0.1005 within 3.5 hours. This was followed by a bearish reversal and a pullback to 0.097–0.098, suggesting a potential exhaustion of momentum at the top. A large bullish engulfing pattern formed around 05:00–05:45 ET, with a follow-through in the next 1.5 hours. Key resistance levels emerged around 0.0985–0.1005, while support appeared at 0.0965–0.0975 after a failed test at 0.0955.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both bullish during the early morning breakout. Price spent a significant portion of the session above both, indicating short-term strength. The 50-period MA acted as dynamic support during the consolidation phase. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits slightly below the current price, while the 100-period MA is approaching from below, suggesting potential for a longer-term bullish crossover.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above zero during the early morning surge, confirming bullish momentum. The histogram showed strong positive divergence during the 05:00–06:30 ET window, which later converged as price pulled back. RSI hit overbought territory around 0.1005 and remained elevated for several hours before declining during consolidation. A bearish divergence emerged in RSI after 09:00 ET, hinting at potential exhaustion. The current RSI reading of ~60 suggests moderate momentum but not yet overextended.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early breakout, reflecting rising volatility. The price traded above the upper band for several hours before returning to mid-band territory during consolidation. A contraction in band width was observed between 07:00–08:30 ET, suggesting potential for a breakout or breakdown. The current position of the price within the bands is mid to slightly above, with no clear bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 05:00–06:30 ET period, aligning with the breakout above 0.1005. This was followed by a period of lower volume during consolidation, indicating reduced conviction. The largest single 15-minute turnover occurred at 02:45 ET with a volume of 1,359,856 and a close at 0.0977. A bearish divergence between price and volume was observed after 09:00 ET as price declined with lower volume, suggesting weakening bullish pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 0.095 to 0.1005 swing were tested during the pullback. The 61.8% level (~0.0976) held as support, preventing a deeper decline. The 38.2% level (~0.0986) acted as resistance during the early consolidation phase. The price is currently hovering near the 61.8% retracement, which may offer a near-term support or pivot point in the coming session.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed patterns and behavior, a potential backtest strategy could focus on the 05:00–06:30 ET breakout window, where volume and price moved in tandem to push the price above 0.1005. A strategy could trigger a long entry at the breakout of the high of the 05:00–05:15 ET candle (0.0997) with a stop loss below the low of the preceding 15-minute candle (~0.0993). A take-profit target could be set at 61.8% of the 0.0976–0.1005 range (~0.0990), with a potential for a trailing stop as the RSI stabilizes. This approach would seek to capture the initial momentum phase while managing risk with defined stops and targets.