Market Overview for Aevo/Bitcoin (AEVOBTC) – October 11, 2025

• Price declined sharply during the day from $7.9e-07 to $5.7e-07, forming a bearish trend with significant volume at the top.
• RSI and MACD signaled strong bearish momentum, confirming oversold conditions by the end of the session.
• Volatility expanded during the selloff, with Bollinger Bands widening and prices trading near the lower band for much of the day.
• High volume was observed during the early drop, but turnover declined later as the trend consolidated.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggested potential support near $5.7e-07, which coincided with the daily low.

The Aevo/Bitcoin (AEVOBTC) pair opened at $7.7e-07 on October 10 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $7.9e-07, then declined sharply to a 24-hour low of $1.7e-07 before closing at $5.7e-07 at 12:00 ET on October 11. Total volume amounted to 2,182,459.99, while turnover reached $1,086.26. This bearish trend was accompanied by significant early-volume spikes and a steady decline in both price and turnover.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick chart revealed a strong bearish bias throughout the day. A large bearish candle formed between 21:30 and 21:45 ET, where the price fell from $7.5e-07 to $3.5e-07 on massive volume. This was followed by a continuation of bearish momentum with a sharp decline through the next few candles. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged between 21:30 and 21:45 ET, which may indicate a continuation of the downtrend. The session concluded with price hovering near key support levels, suggesting potential consolidation or reversal could be near.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages confirmed the bearish bias, with the 20SMA crossing below the 50SMA earlier in the session. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200-period moving averages all show price trading below the 200SMA, reinforcing the bearish structure and suggesting continued pressure unless a strong reversal occurs.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram and signal line showed a significant bearish crossover during the early selloff, with the histogram expanding to the downside, reflecting strong bearish momentum. The RSI dipped into oversold territory near the end of the session, indicating the market may be overextended to the downside. However, without a strong reversal candle, this could be a false signal rather than a genuine turning point.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the early selloff, with the Bollinger Bands widening and prices trading near or below the lower band. This expansion confirmed the strength of the bearish move. By the end of the session, prices had consolidated closer to the middle band, suggesting that volatility may be starting to normalize, but the bearish bias remains intact.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was highly concentrated in the early selloff, particularly during the 21:30–21:45 ET candle, where it surged to over 1.78 million contracts. This was followed by a sharp decline in volume as prices continued lower, signaling a lack of follow-through buying pressure. Turnover mirrored this pattern, with the highest turnover coinciding with the largest drop. The divergence between volume and price at the end of the session suggests weakening bearish conviction and the possibility of a near-term rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the major swing from $7.9e-07 to $5.7e-07, key support levels appear at $6.1e-07 (38.2%) and $5.8e-07 (61.8%). Price reached the 61.8% level near the session close, where it found temporary support. Traders may monitor this level closely for signs of a bounce or breakdown, with a breakdown below $5.8e-07 potentially signaling a deeper decline.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed technical conditions, a backtest strategy could involve entering a short position at the 21:30–21:45 ET candle on a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern, with a stop-loss placed just above the high of the pattern at $7.5e-07 and a take-profit at the next key support level at $5.8e-07. A trailing stop could be initiated after the price reaches $6.3e-07 to capture further downside if the trend continues. The RSI’s entry into oversold territory at session close may also be used as a dynamic condition to evaluate whether to hold or exit the position.