Market Overview for Aevo/Bitcoin (AEVOBTC) – 2025-10-08

• Price action for AEVOBTC remains in a narrow range with limited volatility and no directional bias.
• No significant momentum was observed, as RSI and MACD showed flat readings throughout the day.
• Volume activity was low in the early hours but increased toward the end of the 24-hour window.
• A small retracement to 8.2e-07 was observed, but price remained within the 8.2e-07–8.5e-07 range.
• Key support and resistance levels appear to conflate at 8.3e-07 and 8.4e-07 respectively, with no clear breakout.

The 24-hour session for AEVOBTC opened at 8.4e-07 on 2025-10-07 at 16:00 ET and closed at 8.2e-07 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 8.5e-07 and a low of 8.2e-07. Total traded volume was 524,101.04, with a notional turnover of approximately $421.40. The price action was contained within a tight range, reflecting a lack of decisive momentum.

Structure & Formations suggest that AEVOBTC is consolidating within a defined range. The 8.3e-07 level has emerged as a key support zone, with price testing it multiple times, most recently at 15:30 ET. Conversely, 8.4e-07 has acted as resistance, with bearish pressure evident in the 15:45–16:15 ET window. A bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 15:30 ET, hinting at short-term bearish bias, though it was not confirmed by volume. A small doji formed at 11:45 ET, signaling indecision.

Moving averages for the 15-minute chart show the 20-period (SMA) above the 50-period, but the difference is minimal, suggesting no clear trend. The daily chart’s 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs are closely aligned, reinforcing the range-bound nature of the market. MACD remained flat throughout the session, with no bullish or bearish divergence. RSI lingered in the 50–55 range, indicating no overbought or oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands reflected low volatility, with the 20-period band width tightening during most of the session. Price remained within the bands, but at times, especially around 08:15–08:45 ET, showed slight bearish pressure. Volatility expanded slightly in the final hours, as price drifted lower toward the lower band. Volume and turnover increased in the last four hours, but no significant price divergence was observed—confirming the bearish pressure seen in the 15:30–16:00 ET period.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the most recent 15-minute swing (from 8.2e-07 to 8.5e-07) identified key levels at 8.3e-07 (38.2%) and 8.375e-07 (61.8%). The 38.2% level coincides with a key support zone and was tested multiple times. The 61.8% level remains untested but could act as a resistance if the pair reverses.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed strategy involves entering a short position when AEVOBTC closes below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (8.3e-07) on the 15-minute chart, with a stop above the 50-period SMA and a target at the 61.8% level or the lower Bollinger Band. A long position is triggered when price closes above the 50-period SMA, with a stop below the 8.3e-07 support and a target at the 50-period SMA + 0.5e-07. Historical data from this session suggests that the short setup was triggered in the 15:30–16:00 ET window, though confirmation was weak. The long setup did not activate. A backtest over the last 30 days could refine entry filters and risk management rules.