Market Overview for AdEx/Bitcoin (ADXBTC) – 2025-09-24

• Price remained tightly consolidated near 9.9e-07 for most of the 24 hours, with a brief break above to 1e-06 in the early morning.
• Volume surged during the 05:30 ET and 07:00 ET candles, confirming key breakout attempts but lacking follow-through.
• RSI showed no overbought/oversold extremes, indicating neutral momentum despite price fluctuations.
• Bollinger Bands contracted for most of the session, suggesting potential for a breakout.
• Turnover was muted, suggesting limited participation in price movements.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-24, AdEx/Bitcoin (ADXBTC) opened at 9.8e-07 and closed at 9.9e-07 at 12:00 ET the following day. The pair reached a high of 1e-06 and a low of 9.8e-07. Over the 24-hour period, the total volume amounted to 231,231.0 ADXBTC, with notional turnover at 0.2278 BTC.

Structure & Formations

ADXBTC displayed a range-bound structure for most of the 24-hour period, with prices clustering tightly around the 9.9e-07 level. A few candles, particularly in the early morning hours, showed signs of bullish intent, including a hammer pattern at 04:30 ET and a bullish engulfing pattern at 05:30 ET. The most significant move was at 07:00 ET, where the pair briefly broke above the upper range to 1e-06 before consolidating again. A bearish rejection at 09:30 ET signaled a potential resistance at that level. These patterns suggest a possible breakout scenario could unfold if volume and momentum align.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were nearly flat, reflecting the low volatility and consolidation. MACD remained below the zero line throughout the session, with no strong divergence observed. RSI hovered between 48 and 54, indicating moderate bullish momentum without reaching overbought levels. This suggests that while bulls attempted to push prices higher, they lacked the strength to maintain a breakout. The daily chart showed a similar pattern, with the 50, 100, and 200-day MA lines closely aligned, reinforcing the sideways bias.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands were narrow for much of the session, with the price staying within one standard deviation of the 20-period moving average. A brief expansion occurred at 07:00 ET, coinciding with the breakout attempt, but the band width quickly returned to a narrow state. The price briefly touched the upper band before retreating, suggesting the upper range was a key resistance level. As volatility remained low, a significant break above or below the bands would likely require a catalyst or increased volume to sustain.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked at 05:30 ET and 07:00 ET, with the former candle recording 132,491 ADXBTC traded and the latter 10,994 ADXBTC. These spikes corresponded with the price's attempts to break out of the range. However, the lack of sustained follow-through volume after these spikes implies limited conviction. Turnover mirrored this trend, with higher volumes associated with higher price levels, yet no divergences were observed. The overall picture suggests that while there were short-lived bullish pushes, they lacked the liquidity to sustain a directional move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the recent swing low at 04:30 ET (9.8e-07) and the swing high at 07:00 ET (1e-06), key Fibonacci levels were identified. The 38.2% retracement level at 9.93e-07 acted as a temporary support, and the 61.8% level at 9.96e-07 served as a minor resistance. The price briefly touched the 61.8% level during the 09:30 ET candle, confirming its relevance. These levels will likely remain significant in the next 24 hours, especially if volume increases and price breaks out of the current consolidation pattern.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering a long position on a bullish engulfing pattern followed by a confirmation candle that closes above the engulfing candle's high, with a stop-loss placed below the pattern's low. This strategy aims to capture breakout momentum while managing risk. Given the recent engulfing pattern at 05:30 ET, this setup could have provided a valid entry point. If applied over multiple similar setups on the 15-minute chart, the strategy may show a positive expectancy if filtered with increasing volume and Bollinger Band expansion.