Market Overview for AdEx/Bitcoin on 2025-10-22

• AdEx/Bitcoin consolidates near 8.5e-07 amid low turnover and minimal price movement.
• Volume spikes at key moments but fails to push price beyond previous resistance.
• RSI indicates neutral momentum while MACD remains flat with no clear trend.
• Bollinger Bands show price clustering near the midline, suggesting low volatility.
• Fibonacci retracement levels offer limited guidance due to flat price action.

The AdEx/Bitcoin (ADXBTC) pair opened at 8.8e-07 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 8.5e-07 the following day at 12:00 ET, with a high of 8.8e-07 and a low of 8.4e-07 over the 24-hour period. Total traded volume amounted to 982,066.0, with a notional turnover reflecting the low volatility of this session.

Structure and formations suggest minimal directional bias, as the pair hovered within a tight range for most of the session. Notable candlestick patterns were absent, though a small bearish rejection occurred during the 04:30 ET hour when price briefly dipped to 8.4e-07. On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages converged near the close, with the 50-period line slightly above the 20-period, signaling neutral to slightly bearish momentum.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained in the 50–55 range, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram showed negligible divergence, with the MACD line and signal line closely aligned. Bollinger Bands remained narrow, suggesting low volatility and a potential consolidation phase. Price remained centered within the bands for most of the session, with no clear breakout attempts.

Volume was largely subdued throughout the period, with only a few spikes near 19:30 ET and 03:45 ET, which did not result in significant price movement. Turnover followed a similar pattern, with no divergence observed between price and volume. Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the previous 15-minute swing (8.4e-07 to 8.8e-07) positioned 8.5e-07 at the 38.2% level, offering limited directional guidance. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages were nearly aligned, reinforcing a neutral outlook.

The market could remain range-bound for the next 24 hours unless volume picks up and price attempts a directional move above or below key levels. Investors should monitor for any breakout attempts and divergences in volume or momentum indicators.

Backtest Hypothesis

To better understand the behavior of AdEx/Bitcoin in resistance-level scenarios, a structured backtesting strategy can be applied. This strategy involves identifying historical resistance levels using a 90-day rolling high and marking an “event date” when the closing price enters within 1% of that high. These resistance-level events can then be analyzed to determine success rates of breaks, pullbacks, and overall profitability of trades initiated at or near these levels. If the 90-day window or 1% threshold is not optimal, it can be adjusted—e.g., to 60 days or 0.5%—based on prior testing. Once defined, this approach can be backtested from 2022-01-01 to the present to evaluate its robustness and adaptability in different market conditions. Proper data sourcing is key, so specifying the exact exchange and ticker (e.g., BINANCE:ADXBTC) will help ensure the correct price series is used.