Market Overview for ADAJPY on 2025-09-26

• ADAJPY fell 0.75% over 24 hours amid bearish price action, breaking below key intraday support.
• Volatility spiked mid-session with a sharp drop from 118.9 to 115.37, followed by modest recovery.
• Momentum indicators suggest oversold conditions, but volume divergence raises caution.
• Bollinger Band contraction in the morning suggests a potential breakout ahead.
• Key Fibonacci levels at 115.37 (61.8%) and 116.01 (38.2%) are currently in focus.

Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) opened at 118.8 on 2025-09-25 at 16:00 ET, peaked at 118.9, and closed at 116.16 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. The pair traded in a 118.9 to 114.36 range, with total volume reaching 781,241.8 and turnover totaling 81,878,734.70 Yen.

Structure & Formations

ADAJPY displayed a bearish bias for much of the 24-hour window, with a sharp breakdown in the early afternoon. A strong bearish engulfing pattern formed around 17:30 ET, with price falling from 115.37 to 115.53. A long-legged doji around 21:30 ET suggested indecision. Key support levels are now at 115.37 (61.8% Fibonacci) and 114.36 (swing low), while 116.01 (38.2% retracement) and 116.74 (resistance) are critical for near-term direction.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows ADAJPY closing below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 116.22, the 100-period at 116.55, and the 200-period at 116.88. Price remains below the 200 SMA, suggesting continued bearish momentum unless a strong reversal occurs.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below zero during the selloff, confirming bearish momentum, though the histogram has started to contract. The RSI reached oversold territory (32) near 114.36, but volume failed to confirm the strength of the bounce. This divergence raises the possibility of a consolidation phase before the next directional move.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility surged after a morning contraction, with ADAJPY expanding the lower Bollinger Band as it approached 114.36. Price has since traded in the upper half of the band, suggesting a potential retest of the 116.01 level. A sustained close above this level could trigger a short-term rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early afternoon selloff, with the most significant trade at 17:30 ET (54,906.6 volume). Turnover also spiked during the same period, confirming the move. However, a later rebound at 22:15 ET showed lower volume, indicating weaker conviction. This volume divergence suggests caution ahead of a potential bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels are closely aligned with key support and resistance levels. The 61.8% retracement at 115.37 acted as a floor for much of the session, while 38.2% at 116.01 and 50% at 115.69 are now critical for determining near-term direction. A break above 116.74 (swing high) could invalidate the bearish case.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a combination of RSI and MACD crossovers. Given the oversold RSI and contracting MACD histogram, a long entry near 114.36 with a stop loss at 113.85 and a target at 116.01 could be tested. This setup would align with a reversal pattern, using volume as a filter to confirm strength. The strategy would focus on short-term rebounds within a broader bearish trend, using Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Band reversion for risk management.