Market Overview for Aave/Tether (AAVEUSDT) - October 1, 2025

• Aave/Tether (AAVEUSDT) broke out above 275.0, reaching 288.08, with strong volume surges after 08:45 ET.
• Momentum turned bullish with RSI above 60 and positive MACD divergence.
• Volatility increased as Bollinger Bands widened, signaling breakout potential.
• Fibonacci retracements highlight 284.74 as a key consolidation level.
• Price closed near the upper band with 24-hour turnover exceeding $48.9 million.

On October 1, 2025, Aave/Tether (AAVEUSDT) opened at $267.63 at 12:00 ET (previous day), surged to a high of $288.08, and closed at $286.31 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a total trading volume of 76,423.93 AAVE and a notional turnover of $21.26 million (calculated using the close prices and volumes).

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a strong bullish reversal from a key support cluster near 273.9–275.0, followed by a powerful impulse move above 280. A large bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 08:45 ET as the price surged from 275.0 to 284.74 in one candle. A series of higher highs and higher lows after 09:00 ET suggest a forming bullish trend. A potential bearish harami appeared at 16:00 ET as price closed below the upper Bollinger Band, indicating possible exhaustion.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, price closed above both the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, confirming a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, price appears to be consolidating above the 50-day SMA, but remains below the 200-day SMA, indicating a mixed intermediate-term outlook.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a strong positive divergence during the 09:00–11:45 ET window, with the histogram turning green after a deep bearish divergence overnight. RSI crossed above 60 and remained in overbought territory for several hours, suggesting continued buying pressure. However, the RSI’s pullback below 60 in the final hour of the 24-hour window may signal short-term profit-taking.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the breakout from 275.0, pushing the bands wider. Price closed near the upper Bollinger Band at 12:00 ET, a sign of strong momentum. A consolidation near the midline could indicate a pause, but a retest above the upper band would suggest continuation of the bullish phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply after 08:45 ET, with a single candle (08:45–09:00 ET) showing 12,823.615 AAVE traded, or about 16.7% of the total 24-hour volume. Turnover confirmed the volume increase, with the largest turnover spike aligning with the breakout above 275.0. Price and volume action remained in alignment, suggesting genuine buying rather than wash trading.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing low at 266.65 and high at 288.08, the 61.8% retracement level is at 279.65, and the 50% level is at 277.37. Price appears to have paused near 284.74–285.91, which aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the prior daily swing, suggesting a possible consolidation or pullback before resuming the bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a breakout and retest approach, entering long on a close above the 275.0 level with a stop-loss placed below the 269.98 support level. The first target would be the 279.65–280.00 area, followed by a second target at 285.00. This hypothesis aligns with the observed engulfing patterns, bullish divergence in MACD, and the strong volume confirmation seen during the breakout.