Market Overview for Aave/Tether (AAVEUSDT) on 2025-10-31

• Aave/Tether (AAVEUSDT) traded in a volatile 24-hour range between $207.51 and $221.10, closing near the upper end.
• Momentum dipped mid-day before surging late, with RSI hovering near overbought levels in the final hours.
• Volatility spiked as Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting divergent buying and selling pressures in late ET hours.
• A key support at $210.82 held into early evening, while resistance at $214.04 was repeatedly tested but not decisively breached.
• Total volume reached 93,907.15, and notional turnover hit $19.6 million, suggesting heightened but mixed conviction in price direction.

At 12:00 ET–1, Aave/Tether (AAVEUSDT) opened at $213.58 and closed at $218.62 by 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $221.10 and a low of $207.51. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 93,907.15, with notional turnover of $19.6 million. The price action showed a volatile trend, characterized by sharp dips followed by strong countertrend rallies in the late evening and early morning hours.

Structure and formations suggest a key support area forming around $210.82, which held during a sharp decline in the mid- to late afternoon. Price found buyers at this level, forming bullish candlestick patterns such as a hammer and a bullish engulfing pattern. Resistance appears to be consolidating near $214.04 and $219.07, where the market paused multiple times, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. A doji appeared at $214.04, signaling potential indecision.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the 20-period line crossing above the 50-period line in the late ET hours, suggesting a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period line is above the 100- and 200-period lines, indicating a longer-term bearish-to-bullish shift. The price is currently above all three, which may suggest a continuation of the recent upward thrust.

MACD turned positive in the final hours, with a bullish crossover and rising histogram, reinforcing the short-term bullish bias. RSI climbed to near overbought levels (73–76) in the early morning, suggesting a potential pause or pullback. Bollinger Bands expanded in the afternoon and narrowed again as price action consolidated, showing a period of heightened volatility followed by a return to equilibrium. Price remained above the 15-minute and daily bands, suggesting a continuation of the bullish bias.

Volume spiked during the afternoon decline and the subsequent bounce, with a notable divergence between volume and price during the morning consolidation. Notional turnover rose in tandem with volume, confirming the strength of both bearish and bullish moves. The absence of a clear divergence between volume and price suggests that each move is backed by conviction, though not necessarily in a consistent direction.

Fibonacci retracement levels for the recent 15-minute swing show 38.2% at $212.51 and 61.8% at $215.33, both of which were tested but not decisively broken. On the daily chart, 38.2% sits near $214.10 and 61.8% at $217.10, with the price currently near the 61.8% level, indicating a potential area of consolidation or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed strategy uses RSI-14 as a trigger for long entries when it crosses above 70, with an exit rule based on the first close that reaches or exceeds the 5-day high. Given the recent overbought readings in the early morning hours, the strategy could have triggered a long entry around 12:00–1:00 AM ET. The exit rule would then look for a close above the 5-day high, which would be $219.10 as of the last close. This approach could have captured the morning rally but may be exposed to short-term volatility without risk controls. A backtest could help determine its performance in similar market conditions and refine the parameters for improved risk-adjusted returns.