El mercado mantiene la estabilidad mientras se aproxima la reunión de la Fed con las acciones de crecimiento brilando

The S&P 500 held near record territory on December 9th, closing at 6,848.76 after a quiet session with volume sharply below recent averages. This stability followed weeks of volatility, with the index fluctuating between 6,600 and 6,900 as investors weighed economic resilience against higher long-term yields.

The benchmark has gained 16.8% year-to-date, a surge largely powered by artificial intelligence-related growth stocks. These tech leaders have anchored the market's advance despite moderating activity, suggesting strong conviction in the sector's long-term trajectory. The Fed's anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut to a 3.5%-3.75% target range aims to sustain this momentum by bolstering liquidity.

However, investor caution persists. Trading volume remains depressed at 241.6 million shares, significantly below the 4.7 billion shares traded the prior day, hinting at thinner participation in the index's latest gains. While low credit spreads reflect broad risk appetite, the reduced market depth warrants monitoring as the rally extends toward new highs.

Fed Decision: Catalyst for Growth Continuation

The S&P 500's 16.8% year-to-date surge reflects strong risk appetite, but December's Fed meeting remains the defining catalyst for sustaining momentum. Markets expect a 25-basis-point rate cut to 3.5%-3.75% by mid-December, aimed at countering persistent labor market weakness and sticky inflation. This adjustment would mark the first easing step in over three years, signaling a shift in policy posture as the Fed navigates internal divisions over pace and scope.

The dot plot's projection of one additional 2026 cut underscores a cautious easing path, though disagreements persist among policymakers. Some officials favor slower reductions amid inflation above 2%, while others emphasize economic resilience. Concurrently, the Fed is weighing balance sheet expansion and Treasury bill purchases to manage liquidity, though the exact scale remains unclear. These measures aim to prevent market volatility as 10-year yields hover near 4%, resisting further declines without recessionary pressure.

Despite the anticipated dovish shift, risks linger. The S&P 500 trades at a 96th percentile valuation, amplifying sensitivity to policy missteps or delayed data. Speculation around a potential Fed chair change also introduces uncertainty, though FOMC constraints may limit abrupt shifts. For now, the committee's "data-dependent" stance leaves room for both growth acceleration and renewed volatility, depending on how quickly economic signals clarify.

Bridging Growth and Risk

The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts face headwinds from persistent inflation exceeding 2%, complicating the easing path and raising policy concerns. This backdrop intensifies scrutiny of equity valuations, where the S&P 500 trades at a 96th percentile P/E ratio-a level historically associated with bubble risk and potential pullbacks. While AI-driven growth and fiscal stimulus continue to support markets, this extreme valuation amplifies downside vulnerability if earnings disappoint or policy shifts unexpectedly.

Market anxiety is visibly reflected in the VIX, which rose to 17.15 on December 9, 2025, signaling elevated expectations for near-term turbulence. Active options positioning around key strikes further underscores investor caution, with protective puts and calls deployed ahead of upcoming volatility. This combination of stretched valuations and heightened volatility creates a fragile environment where sentiment can turn quickly.

The Fed's internal divisions and cautious "data-dependent" stance mean further easing remains uncertain. While markets price in about 60 basis points of additional rate cuts in 2026, any delay due to stubborn inflation could pressure equity valuations further. Investors must balance the growth thesis against these concrete frictions: the risk of a valuation correction, the possibility of tighter policy persistence, and the readiness of markets for volatility. Success will hinge on whether earnings growth can justify current prices amid this uncertain backdrop.