Market Analysts Predict Gradual Stabilization Amid Short-Term Fluctuations

Market analysts have predicted that after a brief period of consolidation, the market is expected to gradually stabilize and rise. This prediction comes as the market faces significant uncertainties in the near term, with short-term fluctuations likely to occur as it adjusts to recent gains. This period of adjustment is seen as a necessary step before the market can regain its upward momentum.

Analysts from Dongguan Securities noted that the market experienced a full-day oscillation on Monday, with the three major indices slightly declining. The trading volume continued to shrink, indicating a cautious approach from investors. The data from the University of Michigan showed that the consumer confidence index for April fell to 52.2, a significant drop from 57 in March. This data suggests that consumer sentiment in the United States is at a historical low. However, the domestic economy exceeded expectations in the first quarter, which is expected to further stabilize market confidence. The second quarter is anticipated to see a concentrated effort in macroeconomic policies, with monetary policy potentially moving towards substantial easing and fiscal stimulus continuing to be enhanced. This indicates that there are still ample policy reserves and measures to mitigate external uncertainties.

Analysts from Zhongyuan Securities observed that the market experienced a small amplitude oscillation on Monday, with the stock index opening lower and then oscillating back. The Shanghai Composite Index found support around 3279 points, and the market maintained oscillations throughout the day. Sectors such as gaming, banking, power, and communications performed well, while real estate, food and beverage, tourism and hotels, and commercial retail sectors underperformed. The market is expected to continue with range-bound oscillations in the short term, but policy support and economic resilience will provide structural opportunities. The market is likely to continue with a policy and earnings-driven structural trend, with investors needing to balance defensive and growth strategies, focusing on sectors with high earnings certainty and clear policy catalysts, while being cautious of short-term volatility caused by external risks.

Analysts from Caixin Securities believe that before the May Day holiday, the market is likely to continue oscillating and consolidating. After the holiday, as the impact of overseas tariff disruptions diminishes and domestic policies are strengthened, along with the release of annual and quarterly reports, the market is expected to enter a structural upward trend. In May, as the impact of overseas tariff wars on the market gradually subsides, the market is likely to return to a logic driven by expanding domestic demand and AI industry trends. In the medium to long term, the investment value of A-shares is expected to be highlighted, with a focus on high-growth AI industry chains and low-cost opportunities in the direction of self-sufficiency and controllability.