Mark Zuckerberg Stands To Gain The Most From TikTok's US Ban: Meta Could Reap Billions In Ad Revenue

Meta Platforms Inc. (META) is poised to be the biggest winner if TikTok is banned in the U.S., according to Morgan Stanley analysts. The ban, which could go into effect on Sunday, would leave a significant void in the social media landscape, with TikTok's 170 million American users seeking alternative platforms for short-form video content. Meta, with its extensive user base and robust data capabilities, is well-positioned to capture a substantial share of TikTok's ad revenue and user engagement.

Meta's large user base, spanning billions of users across its platforms, including Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp, provides a strong foundation for capturing ad revenue from TikTok's users. In addition, Meta's data capabilities, which include user preferences, behaviors, and interests, enable it to target ads more effectively, further boosting its ad revenue potential.

According to Morgan Stanley, for every 10% of U.S. user time currently spent on TikTok that Meta can capture, it could add 30 cents to 60 cents to the company’s estimated roughly $30 in earnings per share in 2026. This suggests that Meta could see significant ad revenue gains if TikTok is banned in the U.S. Moreover, Instagram Reels, Meta's short-form video platform, is expected to be a significant beneficiary of TikTok's ban. Many TikTok users also use Instagram, and with TikTok gone, they are likely to spend more time on Instagram Reels, further boosting Meta's ad revenue.

Meta's earnings per share could also see a significant boost from capturing half of TikTok's U.S. user time. Morgan Stanley estimates that this could add $1 to $3 to Meta's estimated earnings per share in 2026. This potential increase in earnings per share highlights the significant opportunity that a TikTok ban presents for Meta.

In conclusion, Meta Platforms Inc. (META) stands to gain the most from a TikTok ban in the U.S., with the potential to reap billions in ad revenue and see a significant boost in earnings per share. Meta's large user base and robust data capabilities position it well to capture a substantial share of TikTok's ad revenue and user engagement, making it the clear winner in the event of a TikTok ban.