Marathon Petroleum Drops 3.10% As Bearish Technicals Threaten Key 157 Support

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) declined 3.10% in the latest session, closing at $156.95 after trading between $156.81 and $162.79. This analysis assesses the technical landscape using multiple frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows MPC challenging key support near $157, a level validated by the May 29 low ($156.36) and the June 4 close just above this zone. The last three sessions formed a bearish evening star pattern: a large green candle (June 3, +2.03%), followed by a small-bodied candle (June 2), and a decisive red candle (June 4, -3.10%). This suggests weakening bullish momentum. Resistance is firm at $163–$164, aligned with the May 30 and June 3 highs. A break below $157 could trigger further downside toward $152.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (currently near $160) crossed below the 100-day MA ($162) in late May, signaling a deteriorating intermediate trend. The 200-day MA ($150) still slopes upward, indicating the primary uptrend remains intact but is losing momentum. Current price trades below all three key MAs, reflecting near-term bearish pressure. The convergence of the 50/100-day MAs may act as dynamic resistance.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) is in negative territory, with the histogram widening its downward slope since late May. This acceleration in bearish momentum lacks immediate reversal signals. KDJ metrics (K:25, D:35, J:5) show the %J line deeply oversold, while the K/D lines flirt with oversold thresholds. Though KDJ hints at exhaustion, the bearish MACD divergence suggests downtrend continuation remains probable.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded after a mid-May contraction, with price piercing the lower band on June 4. Such a move often precedes short-term rebounds, but the current close below the 20-day moving average ($161) reinforces the negative bias. A sustained position beneath the lower band may signal an oversold bounce is due, though the primary trend remains downward.
Volume-Price Relationship
Down days have increasingly accompanied elevated volume (e.g., June 2: 2.96M shares vs. average). The June 4 decline (-3.10%) saw volume surge to 2.58M shares, reinforcing bearish conviction. Conversely, rallies like the June 3 gain (+2.03%) occurred on below-average volume (2M shares), indicating weak buying participation. This divergence validates the current bearish bias.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI sits at 38, escaping oversold territory after touching 30 recently. While the current reading avoids extreme oversold conditions, the bearish RSI trend since mid-May (from 65 to 38) supports further downside risk. A recovery above 50 would be needed to neutralize momentum concerns.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low at $121.53 (April 10) and the swing high at $177.12 (August 30), key retracement levels emerge. The recent rejection near the 61.8% level ($163) and subsequent breakdown below the 50% level ($149) shift focus to the 38.2% support at $140. The 78.6% retracement ($157) aligns with current critical support, suggesting a breach here may accelerate declines toward $140–$142.
Confluence & Divergence Notes
Confluence exists at $157, where Fibonacci support, the 200-day MA, and the May 29 low converge. A decisive break below this zone would align with bearish MACD, volume, and candlestick signals. Notable divergence emerged in late May when price neared $163 while RSI and MACD trended lower, foreshadowing the current pullback. The KDJ’s oversold reading diverges from MACD’s bearish momentum, implying potential volatility but no clear reversal catalyst yet.
Summary
MPC exhibits bearish near-term technical posture, with momentum oscillators and volume dynamics supporting downside continuation. Key support at $157 is critical; failure here targets $150–$152 (200-day MA) and potentially $140 (Fibonacci 38.2%). Resistance is robust at $163–$164. A recovery above $163 would require bullish volume confirmation to invalidate the current bearish structure.