Manulife Shares Drop 3.89% As Bearish Technicals Eclipse Long-Term Uptrend

Manulife Financial declined 3.89% to close at $30.64 in the most recent session, trading between $30.62 and $31.57 on elevated volume of 1.92 million shares. The analysis below evaluates key technical perspectives based on historical price data.
Candlestick Theory
The price formed a bearish engulfing pattern on July 7, 2025, closing near session lows after piercing the critical $31.00 support. This follows a failed recovery attempt around $32.00 resistance seen repeatedly in early July. Historical reactions near $30.60 suggest immediate support, with $32.30 acting as a multi-test resistance zone throughout June and July.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($31.20) crossed below the 100-day MA ($30.50) in late June, generating a bearish signal. The current price trades below the 50-day MA but above the rising 200-day MA ($29.80). This configuration indicates deteriorating medium-term momentum while the long-term uptrend remains intact, pending a potential 100/200-day golden cross at $30.15.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD maintains a bearish posture with the signal line above the MACD line since June 18, though the histogram shows diminishing negative momentum. KDJ registers an oversold condition (K:19, D:24, J:9), marking the fifth oversold reading in twelve months. Historically, such occurrences preceded minor bounces, though price consistently made lower highs during this period.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger bandwidth expanded 18% during the late June breakdown, reflecting volatility surge. The price now hugs the lower band ($30.50), which hasn’t occurred since the April 2025 selloff. Such extremity often precedes mean reversion, though sustained lower-band proximity suggests continuation risk.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution patterns emerged with three above-average volume decline days in the past ten sessions. Notably, the July 7 drop lacked commensurate volume intensity versus the June 27 breakdown (5.8M shares), suggesting reduced capitulation. Resistance tests near $32.00 repeatedly occurred on declining volume, indicating weak conviction.
Relative Strength Index
The 14-day RSI (38) exited oversold territory but remains below its 40-neutral threshold. This aligns with the March 2025 pullback where RSI recovery above 40 preceded stabilization. However, the indicator’s lower highs since June contrast with price’s marginal new highs earlier that month, creating a bearish divergence.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the March low ($28.04) to June high ($32.55) as the anchor leg, the 50% retracement ($30.30) aligns with the July 7 low of $30.62. The 61.8% level ($29.80) corresponds to the 200-day MA and April consolidation zone. Confluence near $30.30 makes this a pivotal support, while a break exposes the $29.80–$30.00 psychological/technical cushion.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence exists at $30.30–$30.60, combining Fibonacci, swing-low support, and the 100-day MA. Bearish divergences materialized in June when KDJ registered lower highs against price’s marginal new peak. The oversold KDJ reading now conflicts with RSI’s neutral position, suggesting indicator disagreement about reversal potential. Given moving average deterioration and volume-supported resistance tests, the technical bias leans bearish below $31.50, with $30.30 serving as the critical near-term support.