Magic Eden/Bitcoin (MEBTC) Market Overview – 2025-10-04

• Price opened at $5.1e-06, reached $5.23e-06, and closed at $5.08e-06, with bearish momentum in the final hours.
• Volatility expanded during the 21:00–22:00 ET window, with a sharp 5.18e-06 to 5.29e-06 move before a pullback.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near $5.18e-06, signaling potential short-term bearish bias.
• Volume surged at key retracement levels but faded alongside price declines in the last 6 hours.

Price Action and Daily Range

Magic Eden/Bitcoin (MEBTC) opened at $5.1e-06 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at $5.08e-06 on 2025-10-04 at the same time, after reaching a high of $5.23e-06 and a low of $4.99e-06. The 24-hour volume totaled 14,134.72 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $71.96 (based on the average price of ~$5.14e-06). The price action showed a volatile 24-hour window, characterized by a bearish reversal in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged at $5.08e-06 and $5.05e-06, with the former acting as a temporary floor during the late afternoon decline. Resistance was seen at $5.18e-06 and $5.23e-06, with a notable bearish engulfing pattern forming near $5.18e-06 after a brief rally. A doji near $5.15e-06 also suggested indecision between bullish and bearish forces. The formation of these patterns indicates that traders are becoming more cautious, especially as price approaches these key levels.

Moving Averages and Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA intersected twice during the session, suggesting a transition from bullish to bearish momentum. The 50SMA currently sits around $5.16e-06, while the 20SMA is below, indicating a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA are aligned between $5.10e-06 and $5.15e-06, suggesting a consolidation phase. Fibonacci retracements of the recent 5.08e-06 to 5.29e-06 move show 61.8% at ~$5.15e-06 and 38.2% at ~$5.19e-06, both of which were tested during the session.

MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands

The MACD crossed below the signal line during the late afternoon decline, confirming the bearish shift. RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30 at $5.05e-06 but failed to bounce strongly, suggesting weak buying interest. Bollinger Bands expanded during the 21:00–22:00 ET window, when price reached $5.29e-06, and then contracted during the consolidation phase. Price closed just above the lower band at the session’s end, suggesting further bearish pressure may follow if the trend continues.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked to over 3,516 units near $5.08e-06 but failed to confirm a strong reversal, indicating a divergence between price and volume. The highest turnover occurred during the 21:15–21:45 ET rally, where a 5.15e-06 to 5.29e-06 move was driven by strong volume. However, as the price declined below $5.18e-06, volume faded, suggesting a lack of follow-through selling. This divergence could be a bearish signal if price continues to fall without support.

Looking ahead, MEBTC may test $5.05e-06 and $5.03e-06 as potential support levels over the next 24 hours. A breakout above $5.19e-06 could signal a bullish reversal, but with current momentum favoring the downside, caution is warranted for short-term traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

To further validate the bearish bias observed in the last 6 hours, a potential backtest could be based on a short bias triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern combined with a MACD crossover and RSI below 30. The trade would be initiated upon the close of the candle forming the engulfing pattern, with a stop-loss set just above the high of the pattern and a target at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Given the recent price divergence and fading volume on rallies, this strategy could be tested across multiple 15-minute candles to evaluate its reliability in confirming short-term bearish momentum.